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Edition: 306

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Cuffelinks Firstlinks Edition 306

Election countdown, 7 ways to fix franking loss, more tax avoidance, contributions tax, CGT, investing rules of thumb, behaviour, AI ethics.

10 rules of thumb for investing during uncertainty

To avoid retreating from making investment decisions during uncertainty, investors are compelled to rely on 'rules of thumb' to guide them in decision-making. Here are many of the more popular commonly-used rules.

Investors can reduce failures of self-control

Investors do not make rational decisions, and David Laibson's research suggests changing the environment has proven to be more effective than trying to talk people into changing their behavior.

AI is running ahead of its ethical issues

Artificial Intelligence is developing faster than the ethical issues is raises, as most people seem unconcerned about the impact of data trails and decision-making by algorithms. The response in time is likely to be more regulation.

Why extra super contributions tax may catch you too

The extra 15% Division 293 tax slips easily under the radar, and most people do not realise how it is calculated and how the proposed Labor policy might now capture them.

Franking policy may increase corporate tax avoidance

The results of three studies suggest that companies undertake less tax avoidance due to franking credit refundability. It gives an incentive to pay corporate tax and franked dividends to satisfy Australian shareholders.

Two Labor policies facing inadequate scrutiny

The assumption that being a member of a large pooled fund will protect franking credit refunds, and the lack of concern about the impact of Labor's capital gains tax change, both require greater scrutiny.

7 strategies to manage a loss of franking

Much has been written about Labor's franking policy, so we bring together a range of possible strategies. It's likely that even if implemented, it will not be in its current guise, so anyone affected should wait before taking action.

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Building a lazy ETF portfolio in 2026

What are the best ways to build a simple portfolio from scratch? I’ve addressed this issue before but think it’s worth revisiting given markets and the world have since changed, throwing up new challenges and things to consider.

Get set for a bumpy 2026

At this time last year, I forecast that 2025 would likely be a positive year given strong economic prospects and disinflation. The outlook for this year is less clear cut and here is what investors should do.

Meg on SMSFs: First glimpse of revised Division 296 tax

Treasury has released draft legislation for a new version of the controversial $3 million super tax. It's a significant improvement on the original proposal but there are some stings in the tail.

Ray Dalio on 2025’s real story, Trump, and what’s next

The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.

10 fearless forecasts for 2026

The predictions include dividends will outstrip growth as a source of Australian equity returns, US market performance will be underwhelming, while US government bonds will beat gold.

13 million spare bedrooms: Rethinking Australia’s housing shortfall

We don’t have a housing shortage; we have housing misallocation. This explores why so many bedrooms go unused, what’s been tried before, and five things to unlock housing capacity – no new building required.

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