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Edition: 378

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 378

  • 8 October 2020

Budgets are forecasts, and more than most, Josh Frydenberg and Treasury waved a wet finger in the air in compiling the 2020 version. How many companies will now employ a new apprentice for $100 a week subsidy? Which back-of-the-envelope showed 3.5 million businesses would use the instant asset write off? And the $17.9 billion for super savings based on the YourSuper proposal is wishful thinking.

YourSuper will save $17.9 billion! Surely you’re joshing

In Budget 2020, Josh Frydenberg announced a performance comparison tool and fund stapling to save Australians $17.9 billion over 10 years. But too many moving parts make results highly cyclical.

One last hurrah for the 60/40 portfolio?

The 60/40 diversified portfolio has been the mainstay of the superannuation industry for decades. But it is built on a fundamental principle of defensive bond returns, and its time is nigh.

Interview: How markets saved companies with zero revenues

Both equity and fixed interest markets now have far greater understanding of which companies will struggle during COVID. Supported by central banks, the markets have bailed out companies facing zero revenues.

Too big to perform? The importance of limiting capacity

Some fund managers take as much money as they can raise in the interests of generating fees, but especially in the smaller and mid cap space, limiting capacity gives flexibility and a competitive advantage.

How active bond funds hunt for value in fixed income

Fixed income opportunities beyond term deposits and hybrids remain scarce for retail investors, but active bond funds can access other securities where value is still available. Here are examples.

Claiming a tax deduction for super contributions

The timing of lodging a notice of intent to claim a tax deduction on super contributions and making partial rollovers or withdrawals can make a big difference to the amount allowed to be claimed.

Add extra fries: the growing appetite for food-delivery services

The pandemic has boosted food-delivery businesses but is this a permanent change in habits rather than due to short-term lockdowns? Established businesses such as McDonalds and car companies are in on it.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Building a lazy ETF portfolio in 2026

What are the best ways to build a simple portfolio from scratch? I’ve addressed this issue before but think it’s worth revisiting given markets and the world have since changed, throwing up new challenges and things to consider.

Ray Dalio on 2025’s real story, Trump, and what’s next

The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.

13 million spare bedrooms: Rethinking Australia’s housing shortfall

We don’t have a housing shortage; we have housing misallocation. This explores why so many bedrooms go unused, what’s been tried before, and five things to unlock housing capacity – no new building required.

21 reasons we’re nearing the end of a secular bull market

Nearly all the indicators an investor would look for suggest that this secular bull market is approaching its end. My models forecast that the US is set for 0% annual returns over the next decade.

Making sense of record high markets as the world catches fire

The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.

3 ways to fix Australia’s affordability crisis

Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.

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