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Edition: 394

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 394

  • 11 February 2021

At any time in the investing cycle, a strong case can be made for both buying and selling equities. There are no absolutes. Even as markets look overvalued at the end of a bull run, the optimism could play out for years to come. The added complication for investors at the moment is the unlimited liquidity the central banks are pumping into the system. The TINA trade is real.

$100 billion! Five reasons investors are flocking to ETFs

It's not official, but Australian ETFs are clicking over $100 billion right now. It's a remarkable rise, leaving the traditional rivals, the Listed Investment Companies, in their dust. Why are they so popular?

Guess what? It may actually be different this time

Retirees or those close to retirement are courting risk by standing pat with too-aggressive portfolios. In a volatile market, tune out the pundits and take a look in the mirror. Are you happy with your exposure?

Should equity investors fear higher bond yields?

Lower bond yields have been used to justify higher share market valuations for much of the last decade. Now bond rates are rising and there is an inflation threat, what determines whether equities will be hit?

The attacking defender: position for downturns with private debt

In investing, income and capital gains are akin to scoring goals, but successful teams must also stop the other side from scoring. Most portfolios need a manager preserving capital and reducing drawdowns.

Taxing the ‘rich’: the potential tax consequences of inequality

At some point, politicians will debate how to reduce the national debt and implement measures aimed at simultaneously easing budget pressures while reducing the gap between rich and poor. Investors should be ready.

Germany will do the minimum to support the euro ... and Europe

Germany benefits from the European currency union that makes the country an export dynamo, but there are at least five reasons why it is reluctant to force the economic and fiscal union the continent really needs.

The challenge of completing our retirement income system

The Government should fix the problems in the pension phase that are leaving gaps for vulnerable groups. Unless these problems are resolved, 9.5% will not deliver adequate retirement incomes.

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Indexation implications – key changes to 2026/27 super thresholds

Stay on top of the latest changes to superannuation rates and thresholds for 2026, including increases to transfer balance cap, concessional contributions cap, and non-concessional contributions cap.

The refinery problem: A different kind of energy crisis in 2026

The Strait of Hormuz closure due to US-Iran conflict severely disrupted global energy supply chains. While various emergency measures mitigated the crude impact, the refined product market faces unprecedented stress.

3 ways to defuse intergenerational anger

With the upcoming budget increasingly likely to include bold proposals to alter the tax code I’ve outlined three incremental steps with fewer unintended consequences.

The missing 30%: how LIC returns are understated, and why it matters

The perceived underperformance of LICs compared to ETFs is due to existing comparison data excluding crucial information, highlighting the need for proper assessment and transparent reporting.

Little‑known government scheme can help retirees tap into $3 trillion of housing wealth

The Home Equity Access Scheme in Australia allows older homeowners to tap into their home equity for retirement income, yet remains underused due to lack of awareness and its perceived complexity.

Origins of the mislabeled capital gains tax ‘discount’

Debate over the CGT discount is intensifying amid concerns about intergenerational equity and housing affordability. This analysis shows that the 'discount' does not necessarily favor property investors.

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