Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 459

Is the investing landscape really different this time?

Everyone knows that the four most dangerous words in investment are ‘This Time It's Different’. Sometimes, it is. More often, things end up much the same. The challenge is knowing which it will be.

My investing lifetime has witnessed some seismic changes and the associated market reactions to them. The dot.com bubble and the financial crisis have been the most striking examples. In both cases, there was no shortage of people claiming to spot the end of one era and the start of something quite different. Very often during the 40 years from the end of the 1970s until Covid, the pre- and post-crisis worlds didn’t look so very different.

So, my instinctive response to an investment bank research note arguing that the pandemic has changed everything is scepticism. This reaction is always magnified when the word ‘postmodern’ is thrown into the headline for effect. For the same reason that you don’t ask a barber if you need a haircut, you might beware of asking Goldman Sachs if you should be ‘positioning for secular change’.

Highlighting four ways markets have changed

But I’m being a tad unfair. The note does highlight four important ways in which the past two years may have radically altered the landscape for investors. Only time will tell whether this necessitates an overhaul of our portfolios, and it would be great if we could wait and see.

Unfortunately, that isn’t how investing works. In the absence of a crystal ball, we have to judge now whether the changes are as drastic as billed - and act accordingly.

No surprise about change number one - the re-emergence of inflation after a long hibernation. Arguably, it was tamed by Fed chairman Paul Volcker in the early 1980s and kept in its box for 40 years by a fortuitous sequence of events that included the de-politicisation of monetary policy in the 1990s, the emergence of China as a source of cheap labour from 2001 and finally the deleveraging and demand shock caused by the financial crisis in 2008.

The pandemic brought this happy run to a halt, with households buoyed by stay-at-home savings and wage support schemes in connection with coronavirus lockdowns, and the inflationary impact of gummed up supply chains and the war in Ukraine more than offsetting the initial fall in demand during lockdown. Central banks are now running to catch up with the potential wage-price spiral that threatens to lock in inflationary expectations. We have been here before. In the late 1960s inflation was not a problem until it was suddenly a big one. And investing in an environment of persistent inflation is clearly going to be very different from what served us well during four decades of relentless disinflation.

Change number two was in evidence well before Covid, but the virus and the war have accelerated a process that was already underway. About the same time that inflation was being Volckerised by the Fed, governments on both sides of the Atlantic were setting in train another revolution. The era of deregulation and privatisation may look as dated as big hair and shoulder pads, but it took a pandemic and war to confirm the fragility of the globalised economy they enabled. Localisation, resilience, and national champions will be the successors to complex, interconnected systems that require everything to go right without fail and which have let us down when that happen.

The third change highlighted by the Goldman Sachs note is related to the first two. Most of the past 40 years have been characterised by cheap and abundant labour and commodities, which removed the need to invest in greater efficiency that was one positive outcome of the shortages and high cost of both of these in the 1970s. The move from global to local will make labour markets ever tighter in future while it will take years to repair the lack of investment in commodity production, even assuming the ESG agenda allows it. For investors that means taking a much closer look at companies’ exposure to energy and labour costs, because the winners going forward will be those less affected by these inputs and those helping other companies to mitigate their impacts through technology and other efficiency measures.

Change four, and the one that may turn out to be the most consequential for investors, is the political shift from small to bigger and more interventionist government. We have moved a long way from Ronald Reagan’s assertion that government is not the solution but the problem. And from the government surpluses that this hands-off approach enabled.

Here, too, the pandemic has been more influential than the financial crisis, which also initially prompted higher government spending but then replaced it with austerity thanks to a belief that bailing out banks was a form of moral hazard. There has been less squeamishness about pandemic-related spending and the habit may be hard to break in an era of more overt populism.

What about war, decarbonising and energy security?

Social and welfare spending is likely to be just the start of it. The new Cold War ignited by Putin’s aggression in Ukraine has encouraged governments to seek to increase defence spending and they have been pushing on an open door. President Biden secured a bigger defence package than he first asked for after both sides of the House thought he hadn’t gone far enough. Germany’s defence U-turn has been broadly welcomed at home.

And that’s before we have even started to talk about the twin imperatives of de-carbonisation and greater energy security. Put this all together with an older fixed asset base than at any time since the 1950s and there may be a capex boom in years to come.

Does this alter everything for investors? Are we really entering a new postmodern era? Should we let our friends at Goldman Sachs reposition our portfolios for secular change? That depends whether you agree that it really is different this time.

 

Tom Stevenson is an Investment Director at Fidelity International, a sponsor of Firstlinks. This document is issued by FIL Responsible Entity (Australia) Limited ABN 33 148 059 009, AFSL 409340 (‘Fidelity Australia’), a member of the FIL Limited group of companies commonly known as Fidelity International. This document is intended as general information only. You should consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement available on our website www.fidelity.com.au.

For more articles and papers from Fidelity, please click here.

© 2021 FIL Responsible Entity (Australia) Limited. Fidelity, Fidelity International and the Fidelity International logo and F symbol are trademarks of FIL Limited.

 

RELATED ARTICLES

What Warren Buffett isn’t saying speaks volumes

Portfolio construction in the real world

When is the right time to pull the plug on an investment?

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Australian house prices close in on world record

Sydney is set to become the world’s most expensive city for housing over the next 12 months, a new report shows. Our other major cities aren’t far behind unless there are major changes to improve housing affordability.

The case for the $3 million super tax

The Government's proposed tax has copped a lot of flack though I think it's a reasonable approach to improve the long-term sustainability of superannuation and the retirement income system. Here’s why.

Tariffs are a smokescreen to Trump's real endgame

Behind market volatility and tariff threats lies a deeper strategy. Trump’s real goal isn’t trade reform but managing America's massive debts, preserving bond market confidence, and preparing for potential QE.

The super tax and the defined benefits scandal

Australia's superannuation inequities date back to poor decisions made by Parliament two decades ago. If super for the wealthy needs resetting, so too does the defined benefits schemes for our public servants.

Meg on SMSFs: Withdrawing assets ahead of the $3m super tax

The super tax has caused an almighty scuffle, but for SMSFs impacted by the proposed tax, a big question remains: what should they do now? Here are ideas for those wanting to withdraw money from their SMSF.

Getting rich vs staying rich

Strategies to get rich versus stay rich are markedly different. Here is a look at the five main ways to get rich, including through work, business, investing and luck, as well as those that preserve wealth.

Latest Updates

SMSF strategies

Meg on SMSFs: Withdrawing assets ahead of the $3m super tax

The super tax has caused an almighty scuffle, but for SMSFs impacted by the proposed tax, a big question remains: what should they do now? Here are ideas for those wanting to withdraw money from their SMSF.

Superannuation

The huge cost of super tax concessions

The current net annual cost of superannuation tax subsidies is around $40 billion, growing to more than $110 billion by 2060. These subsidies have always been bad policy, representing a waste of taxpayers' money.

Planning

How to avoid inheritance fights

Inspired by the papal conclave, this explores how families can avoid post-death drama through honest conversations, better planning, and trial runs - so there are no surprises when it really matters.

Superannuation

Super contribution splitting

Super contribution splitting allows couples to divide before-tax contributions to super between spouses, maximizing savings. It’s not for everyone, but in the right circumstances, it can be a smart strategy worth exploring.

Economy

Trump vs Powell: Who will blink first?

The US economy faces an unprecedented clash in leadership styles, but the President and Fed Chair could both take a lesson from the other. Not least because the fiscal and monetary authorities need to work together.

Gold

Credit cuts, rising risks, and the case for gold

Shares trade at steep valuations despite higher risks of a recession. Amid doubts that a 60/40 portfolio can still provide enough protection through times of market stress, gold's record shines bright.

Investment strategies

Buffett acolyte warns passive investors of mediocre future returns

While Chris Bloomstan doesn't have the track record of his hero, it's impressive nonetheless. And he's recently warned that today has uncanny resemblances to the 1990s tech bubble and US returns are likely to be disappointing.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.