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25 January 2025
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Strategist Russell Napier says central banks have lifted interest rates too far and a deflationary shock is coming. He believes Governments will react radically and investors should avoid bonds and US stocks, and own more gold.
2024 was a banner year for equities, with a run-up in US tech stocks broadening into a global market rally, and the big question now is whether the good times can continue? History suggests optimism is warranted.
Our housing system isn't working, with prices and rents growing faster than wages, longer public housing waiting lists and more people are experiencing homelessness. Here are five ways to ease the crisis.
Asset pricing remains buoyant and equity markets continue to chase financial assets over real ones. As the gap between ‘growth’ stocks and the rest widens further, investors need to decide which side to jump.
Recent volatility has reflected nervousness about tech stocks in the US and whether they can deliver returns on massive AI investment. With rates set to fall, these stocks and the broader US market should continue to find favour.
The RBA's prescription to hike rates may not work to lower inflation into the bank’s 2-3% target band. If anything, there appears to be a positive correlation between interest rates and inflation.
There's nothing wrong with budget deficits if they are appropriately set for a desired economic outcome. But it does require a breakaway from dogmatic economic thought that seems rife among economists and politicians.
Since the 1970s, whenever positive economic growth and disinflation have joined forces, they've produced good conditions for equities, particularly for companies with pricing power. It bodes well for markets going forward.
Financial commentators seem to have forgotten the leading cause of inflation: growth in the supply of money. Warren Bird explains the link and explores where it suggests inflation is headed.
As inflation is likely to remain stubbornly elevated, the correlation between bonds and equities could remain high, reducing diversification within portfolios. A gold allocation may help to better protect your investments.
Supposedly a defensive asset class, bonds have endured a horror four years. A massive boom preceded a massive bust, though the recent downdraft means future prospects appear brighter for high quality bonds.
With the current volatility in inflation and uncertainty about what happens next, retirees are understandably concerned about planning for the future. Here's how to reduce the stress and protect your wealth.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.