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21 May 2026
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In 2020, I warned that surging US money supply growth would spark inflation. By early 2023, I said US money supply was dropping dramatically and that meant inflation would decline. Here's what happens next.
There is a connection between the money supply and the economy. The quantity of money has fallen quickly (and negative in the US), pointing to a recession in 2023. Inflation will head towards the 2% target in 2024.
In 2020 and 2021, Tim Congdon warned us about rapid increases in inflation due to the excess of money growth over output, and he excoriates the experts who ignored the obvious. What is he now saying about 2023?
The answer to whether the US inflation increase will prove temporary or permanent depends on the rates of growth of the quantity of money. It needs to be brought down to about 0.3% a month, and that's a problem.
It looks like a magic money tree, where the central bank simply deposits money in the government's bank account. We asked one of the world's leading authorities on monetarism for an explanation.
A return to indexation of capital gains would be a fairer way to compensate households for the effects of inflation than the current discount. Importantly, it opens the door to future, broader reforms to stop the taxation of inflation.
Australia may not levy formal death duties, but a growing web of tax measures is quietly shaping what wealth passes between generations. Now, the 2026 budget adds another layer.
From oil shocks to fractured alliances, the Iran war carries the hallmarks of a historic policy misstep - one that could tip an already fragile global economy into crisis.
Marketed as a fix for inequality and housing affordability, the latest budget instead delivers a tangle of tax changes that leave everyday Australians worse off.
Copper has had a rough few weeks but investors should not ignore the potential for future price increases as supply increasingly falls behind demand.
The budget’s property tax reforms are being framed as fairness measures, but they risk splitting the housing market, penalising lower‑income investors and introducing distortions that may prove costly.
The vast and opaque world of private assets is a powerful gravitational force - and when trouble hits, it's the more liquid public equities that often the feel it first.