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6 August 2026
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In 2020, I warned that surging US money supply growth would spark inflation. By early 2023, I said US money supply was dropping dramatically and that meant inflation would decline. Here's what happens next.
There is a connection between the money supply and the economy. The quantity of money has fallen quickly (and negative in the US), pointing to a recession in 2023. Inflation will head towards the 2% target in 2024.
In 2020 and 2021, Tim Congdon warned us about rapid increases in inflation due to the excess of money growth over output, and he excoriates the experts who ignored the obvious. What is he now saying about 2023?
The answer to whether the US inflation increase will prove temporary or permanent depends on the rates of growth of the quantity of money. It needs to be brought down to about 0.3% a month, and that's a problem.
It looks like a magic money tree, where the central bank simply deposits money in the government's bank account. We asked one of the world's leading authorities on monetarism for an explanation.
For the last few years there has been much talk of a 'cost-of-living' crisis in Australia and of 'falling living standards'. Lately this has flared up again with the pickup in inflation resulting in a renewed fall in real wages.
What if Australia’s golden age of dividends is ending? Rather than overhaul your portfolio, it may be worth considering where new capital can work harder. I discuss four income strategies and the trade-offs behind each.
Recent CGT reforms tax real gains by indexing capital gains to inflation. However, the reform fails to index losses, leading to higher tax on assets that do not keep pace with inflation, creating inefficiencies in the tax system.
With Australia likely to attract a growing share of AI-related issuance, investors should prepare for increasing influence from AI funding demands, evolving credit fundamentals and changing valuation dynamics.
When data arrived, basketball abandoned the mid-range shot, Formula 1 reinvented the pit stop and chess embraced humans working with machines. Active managers confronting today's markets may learn from the same path.
Most people want answers to three retirement questions: What have I got? Is it enough? What can I do with it? A leading UK pension innovator shares his lessons on helping members better understand and prepare for retirement.
We asked ten fund managers the same question following FY26. While their investment styles differ dramatically, their answers revealed several surprising areas of agreement about where markets may be heading next.