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14 February 2026
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In 2020, I warned that surging US money supply growth would spark inflation. By early 2023, I said US money supply was dropping dramatically and that meant inflation would decline. Here's what happens next.
There is a connection between the money supply and the economy. The quantity of money has fallen quickly (and negative in the US), pointing to a recession in 2023. Inflation will head towards the 2% target in 2024.
In 2020 and 2021, Tim Congdon warned us about rapid increases in inflation due to the excess of money growth over output, and he excoriates the experts who ignored the obvious. What is he now saying about 2023?
The answer to whether the US inflation increase will prove temporary or permanent depends on the rates of growth of the quantity of money. It needs to be brought down to about 0.3% a month, and that's a problem.
It looks like a magic money tree, where the central bank simply deposits money in the government's bank account. We asked one of the world's leading authorities on monetarism for an explanation.
The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.
The assumption that falling house prices are electorally fatal has shaped policy for decades. Evidence from upzoning suggests affordability can improve without reducing overall housing wealth.
Investment bonds can be a versatile and a tax-effective option for building wealth for longer-term investment goals. They can also be used as an estate planning tool, enabling the smooth transfer of wealth to younger generations.
Investors are jumpy as valuations continue to rise and income investing may provide a respite. In a challenging market for income investing AML offers their top picks.
CEO Simon Doyle is retiring after 38 years in the finance industry. In an interview with James Gruber, he shares the three main lessons he’s learned, and where he sees opportunities and risks in markets today.
Investors may overlook the US midterms amid global events, but they could still impact markets. History shows markets react during midterm years, with increased volatility and lower returns. Will this year be any different?
Increasing geopolitical tensions has investors on edge but one study shows evidence of a war premium for equity markets.