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Home / Author: Tim Congdon

Tim Congdon

I called inflation's rise and fall and here's what's next

In 2020, I warned that surging US money supply growth would spark inflation. By early 2023, I said US money supply was dropping dramatically and that meant inflation would decline. Here's what happens next.

Tim Congdon
26 November 2025
3
2

Falling money supply points to recession, and maybe severe

There is a connection between the money supply and the economy. The quantity of money has fallen quickly (and negative in the US), pointing to a recession in 2023. Inflation will head towards the 2% target in 2024.

Tim Congdon
12 April 2023
9

Tim Congdon warned us and we ignored him on inflation

In 2020 and 2021, Tim Congdon warned us about rapid increases in inflation due to the excess of money growth over output, and he excoriates the experts who ignored the obvious. What is he now saying about 2023?

Graham Hand on Tim Congdon
1 February 2023
18

How long will the bad inflation news last?

The answer to whether the US inflation increase will prove temporary or permanent depends on the rates of growth of the quantity of money. It needs to be brought down to about 0.3% a month, and that's a problem.

Tim Congdon
9 June 2021
3

Magic money printing and the reality of inflation

It looks like a magic money tree, where the central bank simply deposits money in the government's bank account. We asked one of the world's leading authorities on monetarism for an explanation.

Tim Congdon
15 April 2020
37

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