Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / Author: Tim Congdon

Tim Congdon

I called inflation's rise and fall and here's what's next

In 2020, I warned that surging US money supply growth would spark inflation. By early 2023, I said US money supply was dropping dramatically and that meant inflation would decline. Here's what happens next.

Falling money supply points to recession, and maybe severe

There is a connection between the money supply and the economy. The quantity of money has fallen quickly (and negative in the US), pointing to a recession in 2023. Inflation will head towards the 2% target in 2024.

Tim Congdon warned us and we ignored him on inflation

In 2020 and 2021, Tim Congdon warned us about rapid increases in inflation due to the excess of money growth over output, and he excoriates the experts who ignored the obvious. What is he now saying about 2023? 

How long will the bad inflation news last?

The answer to whether the US inflation increase will prove temporary or permanent depends on the rates of growth of the quantity of money. It needs to be brought down to about 0.3% a month, and that's a problem.

Magic money printing and the reality of inflation

It looks like a magic money tree, where the central bank simply deposits money in the government's bank account. We asked one of the world's leading authorities on monetarism for an explanation.

Latest Updates

Retirement

Will you run out of money in retirement?

Fear of running out has become a defining retirement anxiety. Why do some retirees die with substantial wealth while others deplete their nest egg? Evidence suggests the answer is more complicated than we think. 

Investing

The investment that sidesteps the new tax traps

Tax rules have changed, but many investors are still using yesterday’s strategies. Insurance bonds may offer advantages for those seeking greater control, tax efficiency and certainty about their wealth.

Shares

The role of shareholder yield in a portfolio

Investors may be overlooking a timeless source of returns in a volatile market. The companies that consistently generate and return cash to shareholders have often proved remarkably resilient through uncertainty.

Shares

Australian inflation still well above the RBA's target

The RBA has spent more than three decades pursuing its 2%-3% inflation target. But the numbers tell a far more complicated story than the headlines. The results may surprise both its strongest critics and most loyal defenders.

Retirement

Retirement in reality - 5 months in

Retirement planning doesn't end when work does. Five months in, Joanne reflects on retiring at a different time to your spouse, coping with setbacks and the importance of rest. Some lessons only become clear after the fact.

Latest from Morningstar

What 6 key market indicators are telling investors right now

Are markets still expensive? There are the seven key indicators every investor needs to know. From gold and equities to bonds, oil, bitcoin and the US dollar. The data reveals where opportunities and risks may lie for investors today.

Investing

Can you ride the AI bubble without overpaying?

AI may prove as transformative as the internet, but markets are behaving as if success is guaranteed. As capital races towards unprecedented levels, investors should ask whether enthusiasm is getting ahead of reality.

Sponsors

Alliances

  • ASA-Logo-RGB-ActiveGreen-web.png

© 2026 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.