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20 February 2026
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In 2020, I warned that surging US money supply growth would spark inflation. By early 2023, I said US money supply was dropping dramatically and that meant inflation would decline. Here's what happens next.
There is a connection between the money supply and the economy. The quantity of money has fallen quickly (and negative in the US), pointing to a recession in 2023. Inflation will head towards the 2% target in 2024.
In 2020 and 2021, Tim Congdon warned us about rapid increases in inflation due to the excess of money growth over output, and he excoriates the experts who ignored the obvious. What is he now saying about 2023?
The answer to whether the US inflation increase will prove temporary or permanent depends on the rates of growth of the quantity of money. It needs to be brought down to about 0.3% a month, and that's a problem.
It looks like a magic money tree, where the central bank simply deposits money in the government's bank account. We asked one of the world's leading authorities on monetarism for an explanation.
A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.
Every investing cycle has its Ozempic moment, a narrative shock so compelling that the market briefly forgets that incumbents can and do adapt to transformative technology like AI.
The best way to deal with the incoming Division 296 tax on superannuation is likely doing nothing. Earnings will be taxed regardless of where the money sits, so here are some important considerations.
It is almost impossible to identify a bubble in real time, and history shows they last far longer than we think, giving investors (perhaps misplaced) hope and short-sellers seemingly endless pain before the share price collapses.
Dealmaking appears to be on the mend, but investors could be well served to look through near-term trends toward six major themes that we think may drive private markets for years to come.
Retail investors have the worst trading record, according to a study of trading performance. Institutional investors weren't at the top either. Here are 6 ways to improve your odds.
A counterpoint to today’s prevailing narrative that Melbourne is the capital of a failing state defined by its strained public finances, COVID hangover and an opposition obsessed with undermining its own credibility.