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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 639

  •   27 November 2025
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We’ve received hundreds of responses to our Reader Survey, but to give as large a sample as possible, we’ll leave it open for a few more days.

We read every one of the comments received. It’s nice to hear so many of you look forward to receiving our newsletter. Your feedback will help to improve our content, and it should take only a few minutes. The survey can be accessed via this link.

So far, your responses have been both insightful and surprising.

Many of you have been readers of Firstlinks for a long time. It’s gratifying that we have so many subscribers who’ve stuck with us.

How long have you been a Firstlinks reader?

We’re always looking for ways to bring new readers on board. We don’t advertise and our primary method for obtaining new subscribers is word of mouth/referrals. So, if you like our newsletter, we’d love you to pass it on to family, friends and colleagues.

Unsurprisingly, many of our readers are older. About 65% are aged 65 years or older. That’s more than we anticipated, though I suspect it’s partly down to sample bias – younger cohorts may not have the time or inclination to fill out the survey.

Which age bracket applies to you?

Almost half of our subscribers have an SMSF. That’s largely in line with surveys of previous years and shows that many of our readers are sophisticated, self-directed investors.

Are you a member of a self-managed super fund (SMSF)?

Most of our readers also have substantial assets. Around 70% have more than $1 million in super, and ~20% have over $3 million.

80% have more than $1 million in assets outside of super, with 37% having more than $3 million. Most of these assets are likely in the family home.

How much do you have in and out of superannuation?

Around a quarter of our readers are receiving financial advice, which is far above average, though it shows advice still has plenty of room to try to attract new clientele.

Do you use professional financial advice services?

As to which assets our subscribers are currently holding, equities and real estate are the two standouts, while private assets are gathering momentum, and bonds are on the nose.

Which assets are you currently invested in?

The topics of most interest to you include investment strategies, super/SMSFs, government/legislative changes, and retirement and estate planning.

Which investment topics most interest you?

We’ve received hundreds of suggestions about what readers like and don’t like about Firstlinks. Most are positive while others offer constructive criticism and there are plenty of ideas for future articles.

Here is a small sample of the comments thus far, leaning more into constructive ideas for future newsletters:

“As a 32yr old reader I am mostly curious in learning about finance to make smarter decisions early in life so they compound significantly over next 3 decades.”

“Enjoy your variety of articles as they stand. Advice on when to sell shares. Up to date SMSF tax changes or govt threats to SMSFs; advice for those in the $3M -10M super bracket and how to manage in view of recent tax changes. Cover emerging themes on the ASX and what to look out for. Love your work.”

“From my perspective:
1. Keep it short and factual
2. ‘Foolproof’ investment strategy…these are a good read….try for 1 per rack weekly issue
3. More coverage on Super Covenant status and best ones ( ie income generators post work pay packets).”

“The articles I find most useful seem to be authored by a subject knowledge expert with a high level of passion, great communications ability and a (usually quite narrow) focus on a subject of developing and/or significant interest which has relevance to my investment portfolio, future wealth, personal health and happiness. What is nice is that you seem to deliver a burst of such articles about every 2-3 weeks with a less demanding breather in between which is very welcome.”

“Would be nice to learn more about super drawdown strategies especially for non-SMSF holders and for those people who will likely exceed the TBC in accumulation once they retire.”

“I am not very financially literate. Some of the articles on topics that I would normally be very interested in, are aimed too high for me with acronyms and jargon that I constantly need to look up. I would appreciate having some articles aimed at those who don't have a financial background.”

“HOUSING! For God's sake and mine … GIVE IT A REST !
Publish Noel Whittaker and Michele Bullock, and give the others the flick! So much useless pining and whining !!  So many solutions and ideas AND NONE OF THEM useful!”

“I would really love to see the podcast back. Even if it's just a snapshot of the best articles of the month.”

“Reader comments are a plus; even though some of the readers are barely articulate, this is outweighed by other highly articulate readers.”

“As a long retired economist and investments manager , I continue to learn more through Firstlinks.”

“I quite enjoy not just the articles, but the commentary from other readers sometimes! A good mix. Some of the articles can be a bit too technical for me, but I'm sure others' find value.”

“FirstLinks provides a range of articles which supplement other sources of info which together help me manage my SMSF and personal investments. Don't agree with all articles BUT all provide food for thought.”

“The problem with many of your contributors from financial industry is that they needlessly make the topics complex. Secondly there seems to be under current to encourage people to speculate instead of saving / investment for long term.”

“I would think that more focus on estate planning and taxation.  Maybe a little complex for your target audience though but immense value is on offer here if people get this bit right.
Imagine the comments monitoring requires a bit of work but it really significantly adds to the experience.”

“Believe you offer very balanced information.  I’m a great fan of Noel Whittaker who spells out financial information in a manner everyone can comprehend.  My major concern is, how do we get young people financially literate earlier??”

“In addition to filling in gaps in my knowledge, I like to read items that challenge my in-built biases, including readers' comments.  To some extent (and understandably), there is a bias in readers towards well-off rather than other groups in the community.”

“I enjoy reading some of the articles. Views of others are important. I would enjoy reading some contrary views on issues - more like a debate.”

Love the feedback; keep it coming.

****

In my article this week, I look at how a lot of froth across many assets heightens the risk of a larger correction, and where the best places may be to hide if trouble is brewing.

James Gruber

Also in this week's edition...

We have a big focus on dividends and income this week.

First, Jen Nurick and Josh Veltman delve into behavioural psychology and how investors often fall prey to ‘amygdala hijacks,’ letting emotion override reason. They think focusing more attention on company dividends rather than stock prices is a useful hack to prevent emotions getting the better of you.

Second, Daniel Pennell says CBA has been a laggard this year, especially compared to global banks, which are up 32% year-to-date. He suggests the global banks trade at lower P/Es with diversified earnings and rising dividends, offering Aussie investors both income potential and long-term value beyond the local market.

Third, Capital Group report on global dividends, which rose 6% year-on-year in the recent quarter, with more expected to come. However, Australia was a notable weak spot, with dividends down 7%, thanks largely to our miners.

In other articles, Firstlinks has had the pleasure in recent years of featuring Tim Congdon, one of the very few who predicted not only the sharp rise in US inflation but it's subsequent fall. He's kindly shared a snippet of his latest thoughts to clients with us about what happens with inflation next. It's a must read.

Superannuation has been a fabulous system but it's become such a leviathan that it may be giving Australia "Dutch Disease", according to Clime's Paul Zwi. That is, super could be creating structural market distortions that leave our economy dangerously specialized and vulnerable to financial market corrections.

You devote years of your life working, saving and investing, striving to build a legacy that will outlive you. Before any wealth moves to the next generation, Bruce Kluk thinks there are six questions every parent should ask themselves.

The Liberal Party has released an energy policy that favours the economy over emissions reduction targets, and Tony Dillon says it's a good start, though more can more done to ensure a pro-economy, ‘no Australian left poorer’ energy policy.

A recent study confirms that even experts often get their predictions wildly wrong. Joe Wiggins looks at the implications for investors and what they should do about it.

Lastly, in this week's whitepaper, Neuberger Berman outlines how banks and private markets are redefining credit

Curated by James Gruber and Leisa Bell

A full PDF version of this week’s newsletter articles will be loaded into this editorial on our website by midday.

Latest updates

PDF version of Firstlinks Newsletter

ASX Listed Bond and Hybrid rate sheet from NAB/nabtrade

Monthly Bond and Hybrid updates from ASX

Listed Investment Company (LIC) Indicative NTA Report from Bell Potter

LIC Monthly Report from Morningstar

Plus updates and announcements on the Sponsor Noticeboard on our website

 

  •   27 November 2025
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Latest Updates

Weekly Editorial

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 639

Thank you for the hundreds of responses to our Reader Survey and to maximise the sample size, we’re leaving it open until this Sunday. Here is an overview of the results so far.

  • 27 November 2025
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Where to hide in the ‘everything bubble’

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Investment strategies

The ultimate investing hack: dividend growth stocks

Investors often fall prey to ‘amygdala hijacks,’ letting emotion trump reason. By focusing on dividend-growth with stocks instead of volatile prices, you can steady your mindset and let compounding do the work. 

Investment strategies

CBA or global banks?

CBA’s recent pullback highlights single-stock risk. Global banks trade at lower P/Es with rising earnings and dividends, offering investors both income potential and long-term value beyond the local market.

Investment strategies

Global dividends rising, but Australia lags

Global dividend growth surged in the third quarter, with median growth of almost 6%. Australia was a notable exception as dividends fell, thanks to flagging mining company payouts.

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I called inflation's rise and fall and here's what's next

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Could your children pass the inheritance ‘stress test’?

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