Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Minicycles and liquidity as a fixed income alpha lever

By Joshua P. Marston, Robert M. Hall, and Benjamin T. Dyer

In brief

  • Shifts in market structure since the global financial crisis (GFC) have resulted in lasting changes in the
    behavior of credit spreads through a credit cycle with significant implications for active investors.
  • Liquidity in the credit markets has contracted dramatically post-GFC, contributing to increasingly
    frequent episodic periods of notable intracycle spread volatility (i.e., minicycles).
  • While increased volatility can be challenging, it also creates opportunities for active managers to add
    value through tactical asset allocation.
  • To capture alpha through these minicycles, valuation discipline is critical, as the risk of short-term give-ups
    in relative portfolio performance created by reducing credit exposure when spreads are tight is likely to be
    more than offset by the potential gains realized by being positioned to redeploy back into credit at more
    attractive valuation levels (i.e., positioned to be a provider of liquidity during periods of distress).

Download the full paper here

  •   22 July 2021
  •      
  •   

 

Leave a Comment:

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Making sense of record high markets as the world catches fire

The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.

3 ways to fix Australia’s affordability crisis

Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.

Is there a better way to reform the CGT discount?

The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.

How cutting the CGT discount could help rebalance housing market

A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 648 with weekend update

This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.

  • 5 February 2026

It’s economic reality, not fear-based momentum, driving gold higher

Most commentary on gold's recent record highs focus on it being the product of fear or speculative momentum. That's ignoring the deeper structural drivers at play. 

Latest Updates

Superannuation

Super is catching up, but ageing is a triple-threat

An ageing Australia is shifting the superannuation system’s focus from accumulation to the lifecycle of retirement. While these pressures have been anticipated for decades, they are now converging at scale and driving widespread industry change.

Investment strategies

Corporate earnings show resilience against volatility but risks remain

Evidence for a strong reporting season had been piling up for months and validated an upgrade cycle already underway. However, risks remain from policy uncertainty.

Superannuation

Want your loved ones to inherit your super? You can’t afford to skip this one step

One in five Australians die before retirement and most have not set up their super properly so their loved ones can benefit from all their hard work and savings. 

SMSF strategies

Sixteen steps in a typical SMSF borrowing

Getting a mortgage is never an easy process but when an investment property is purchased in a SMSF the complexity increases significantly. Read this before taking the plunge. 

Planning

Do HNWI get better advice?

Good advisers lead to more diversification, lower turnover and less home bias. However, studies show the average adviser may not be adding much value to clients. 

Strategy

AFL Final Ten with wildcard edit 'unlevels' the field

When the new AFL season kicks off a wild-card will be added to the finals. Is this new formula fair and how does it impact the odds of winning the premiership.

Planning

Love them or hate them, it's worth understanding annuities

Investors have historically balked at exchanging a lump sum for a future steam of income. Breaking down the financial and emotional considerations of purchasing an annuity.        

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2026 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.