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Sunday, 13 June 2021
Recently trending Super changes, the Budget and 2021 versus 2022Noel's share winners and loser plus budget reality checkGrantham interview on the coming day of reckoningWhoyagonnacall? 10 unspoken risks buying off-the-planBuffett says stock picking is too hard for most investors
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In 1961, Australian women had 3.5 children on average but by 2018, this figure stood at just 1.7. Falling fertility creates a shift in demographics and the ratio of retirees to working-age people.
We need to think hard about how we work and live in the future. How do governments, health gurus, individuals, politicians, businesses and social groups need to act in 2021, both in dealing with COVID and thereafter?
In Budget 2020, Josh Frydenberg announced a performance comparison tool and fund stapling to save Australians $17.9 billion over 10 years. But too many moving parts make results highly cyclical.
The 60/40 diversified portfolio has been the mainstay of the superannuation industry for decades. But it is built on a fundamental principle of defensive bond returns, and its time is nigh.
Australia prides itself on being an open, trading nation, but we rank a poor 106th in the world on trade system productivity. We have not digitalised, failing to set up a competitive recovery from COVID.
It seems counterintuitive, but share prices rose during 17 (85%) of the 20 economic recessions in Australia in the past 150 years as markets tend to anticipate the bad times and recover early.
Coronavirus is a particular worry compared to past epidemics because the world is now so interdependent, but the stockmarket has a habit of exaggerating threats as well as opportunities.
While Australian businesses generally achieve returns below global comparisons, our Best 50 have delivered results well above the accepted world best practice level, and they come from a diversity of industries.
Although some domestic cyclical companies currently offer value, the attraction of offshore growth is a key factor for investors, including strong Australian companies with global aspirations.
One of Australia's senior economists expects local cash rates to remain unchanged through 2019 and 2020, and consumer spending looks weak. By 2020, US growth may be down below 2%.
Australian credit markets have had a good run, and any investor tempted to exit the sector should consider whether a move now is too early in the cycle. A period of range-bound stability is the more likely outcome.
A war between the United States and North Korea is unlikely, but with Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un turning up the rhetoric and mad fingers on the red buttons, anything is possible. What happened last time?
Josh Frydenberg's third budget contained changes to superannuation and other rules but their effective date is expected to be 1 July 2022. Take care not to confuse them with changes due on 1 July 2021.
Among the share success stories is a poor personal experience as Telstra's service needs improving. Plus why the new budget announcements on downsizing and buying a home don't deserve the super hype.
Jeremy Grantham has seen it all before, with bubbles every 15 years or so. The higher you go, the longer and greater the fall. You can have a high-priced asset or a high-yielding asset, but not both at the same time.
All new apartment buildings have defects, and inexperienced owners assume someone else will fix them. But developers and builders will not volunteer to spend time and money unless someone fights them. Part 1
Warren Buffett explained why he believes most investors should not pick stocks but simply own an S&P 500 index fund. "There's a lot more to picking stocks than figuring out what’s going to be a wonderful industry."
The global recession came quickly and deeply but it has given way to a strong rebound. What are the lessons for investors, how should a portfolio change and what role will inflation play?