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14 March 2026
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Inflation has peaked and cash rates are about to peak. That means asset price compression is mostly behind us and 2024 should deliver positive returns for all asset classes, especially those skewed towards income.
Pundits have once again declared the death of the 60% stock/40% bond portfolio amid sharp declines in both stock and bond prices. Based on history, balanced portfolios are apt to prove the naysayers wrong, again.
Low interest rates have so far not ruffled the 60/40 portfolio, but rising rates mean managers and investors will have to be vigilant to maintain returns while controlling volatility.
Equity valuations are lofty, but long bond rates have now returned to levels before the pandemic crisis. In a balanced portfolio, long bonds now provide more opportunity to cushion the volatility of equities.
A long-term investment horizon usually produces the best results for a balanced portfolio, but ignoring the bumps along the way can be difficult. Even a well-diversified portfolio will have large swings in the short-term.
A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.
Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.
The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.
One in five Australians die before retirement and most have not set up their super properly so their loved ones can benefit from all their hard work and savings.
This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.
An ageing Australia is shifting the superannuation system’s focus from accumulation to the lifecycle of retirement. While these pressures have been anticipated for decades, they are now converging at scale and driving widespread industry change.