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Cycles

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Trusting the process in a high-rate environment

  By keeping interest rates on hold this month, the RBA expects that rate increases to date will eventually weigh on consumers and house prices. Is the RBA early or is it wrong, and what are the implicatons for markets?

Lessons from Australia’s largest property busts

After three decades of phenomenal growth nationally, it seemed as though Australian house prices would never go down, until they did last year. Here is a look at previous property downturns and what we might learn from them.

Commodities: has the trend changed?

The commodities market is impossible to predict in terms of cyclical highs and lows, and nobody 'rings the bell' at either point. One strategy is to scale in or out gradually on early detection of a new trend.

Long term equity returns and mean reversion

The 'buy-low, sell-high' mantra implies markets are mean reverting and periods of extreme negative returns are not likely to be sustained. Unfortunately, we find it hard to invest when markets are in the doldrums.

Investors need to allow for future cycles

Economic and investment market cycles do not make for a comfortable ride when making investment decisions and they’re not about to disappear despite numerous smoothing attempts. Face it, cycles just happen.

Are rising oil prices bad for Australian shares?

Rising oil prices may sound scary to investors, but if we go beyond the popular myth and look at the facts, we see a very different picture. Rising oil prices are more often accompanied by rising stocks.

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Raising the GST to 15%

Treasurer Jim Chalmers aims to tackle tax reform but faces challenges. Previous reviews struggled due to political sensitivities, highlighting the need for comprehensive and politically feasible change.

Here's what should replace the $3 million super tax

With Div. 296 looming, is there a smarter way to tax superannuation? This proposes a fairer, income-linked alternative that respects compounding, ensures predictability, and avoids taxing unrealised capital gains. 

100 Aussies: seven charts on who earns, pays, and owns

The Labor government is talking up tax reform to lift Australia’s ailing economic growth. Before any changes are made, it’s important to know who pays tax, who owns assets, and how much people have in their super for retirement.

The rubbery numbers behind super tax concessions

In selling the super tax, Labor has repeated Treasury claims of there being $50 billion in super tax concessions annually, mostly flowing to high-income earners. This figure is vastly overstated.

9 winning investment strategies

There are many ways to invest in stocks, but some strategies are more effective than others. Here are nine tried and tested investment approaches - choosing one of these can improve your chances of reaching your financial goals.

With markets near record highs, here's what you should do with your portfolio

Markets have weathered geopolitical turmoil, hitting near record highs. Investors face tough decisions on valuations, asset concentration, and strategic portfolio rebalancing for risk control and future returns.

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