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Cycles

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Commodities: has the trend changed?

The commodities market is impossible to predict in terms of cyclical highs and lows, and nobody 'rings the bell' at either point. One strategy is to scale in or out gradually on early detection of a new trend.

Long term equity returns and mean reversion

The 'buy-low, sell-high' mantra implies markets are mean reverting and periods of extreme negative returns are not likely to be sustained. Unfortunately, we find it hard to invest when markets are in the doldrums.

Investors need to allow for future cycles

Economic and investment market cycles do not make for a comfortable ride when making investment decisions and they’re not about to disappear despite numerous smoothing attempts. Face it, cycles just happen.

Are rising oil prices bad for Australian shares?

Rising oil prices may sound scary to investors, but if we go beyond the popular myth and look at the facts, we see a very different picture. Rising oil prices are more often accompanied by rising stocks.

Most viewed in recent weeks

11 lessons from my lousy $50K profit on Afterpay

Afterpay listed at $1 in 2016 and traded recently at $70. How should an investor treat a small holding in a 70-bagger when each new level defies the experts? Should true believers let the profits run?

How much bigger can the virus bubble get?

Stocks have rallied hard creating a virus bubble, but will this run for years or collapse in a matter of months? The market is giving a second chance to leave so head for the exit before there's a rush.

Which companies will do well in the turmoil of 2020?

While the shutting of Australia’s borders to international travellers and quarantine measures is damaging to certain sectors of the economy, it is not uniformly negative for all companies.

Share trading is the new addiction

The ability to buy and sell cheaply and quickly in small parcels is both the biggest drawback and benefit of shares. But it encourages people who should not go near the market to use it as a casino.

What is happening with SMSFs? Part 1

Taking a realistic view of the median ‘operating expense’ of an SMSF shows they cost less to run than previously claimed. Look at this granular breakdown and see how the costs of running your SMSF compare.

Why are we convinced 'this time it's different'?

Investors tend to overstate the impact on investments when something significant happens and they assume the future will be different. COVID-19 has been dramatic, but is it really that unusual?

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