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Cycles

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Trusting the process in a high-rate environment

  By keeping interest rates on hold this month, the RBA expects that rate increases to date will eventually weigh on consumers and house prices. Is the RBA early or is it wrong, and what are the implicatons for markets?

Lessons from Australia’s largest property busts

After three decades of phenomenal growth nationally, it seemed as though Australian house prices would never go down, until they did last year. Here is a look at previous property downturns and what we might learn from them.

Commodities: has the trend changed?

The commodities market is impossible to predict in terms of cyclical highs and lows, and nobody 'rings the bell' at either point. One strategy is to scale in or out gradually on early detection of a new trend.

Long term equity returns and mean reversion

The 'buy-low, sell-high' mantra implies markets are mean reverting and periods of extreme negative returns are not likely to be sustained. Unfortunately, we find it hard to invest when markets are in the doldrums.

Investors need to allow for future cycles

Economic and investment market cycles do not make for a comfortable ride when making investment decisions and they’re not about to disappear despite numerous smoothing attempts. Face it, cycles just happen.

Are rising oil prices bad for Australian shares?

Rising oil prices may sound scary to investors, but if we go beyond the popular myth and look at the facts, we see a very different picture. Rising oil prices are more often accompanied by rising stocks.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Howard Marks: the investing game has changed

The famed investor says the rapid switch from globalisation to trade wars is the biggest upheaval in the investing environment since World War Two. And a new world requires a different investment approach.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 605 with weekend update

Trump's tariffs and China's retaliatory strike have sent the Nasdaq into a bear market with the S&P 500 not far behind. What are the implications for the economy and markets, and what should investors do now? 

  • 3 April 2025

Pros and cons of Labor's home batteries scheme

Labor has announced a $2.3 billion Cheaper Home Batteries Program, aimed at slashing the cost of home batteries. The goal is to turbocharge battery uptake, though practical difficulties may prevent that happening.

Designing a life, with money to spare

Are you living your life by default or by design? It strikes me that many people are doing the former and living according to others’ expectations of them, leading to poor choices including with their finances.

World's largest asset manager wants to revolutionise your portfolio

Larry Fink is one of the smartest people in the finance industry. In his latest shareholder letter, the Blackrock CEO outlines his quest to become the biggest player in private assets and upend investor portfolios.

4 ways to take advantage of the market turmoil

Every crisis throws up opportunities. Here are ideas to capitalise on this one, including ‘overbalancing’ your portfolio in stocks, buying heavily discounted LICs, and cherry picking bombed out sectors like oil and gas.

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