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Despite mixed ASX results, the market has shown surprising resilience. With rate cuts ahead and economic conditions improving, investors should look beyond short-term noise and position for a potential cyclical upswing.
We are trading through one of history's most confounding market environments. One day, financial headlines warn of doomsday scenarios. The next, they celebrate a new golden age. How can investors keep a clear head?
This is probably the most interesting earnings season in my 20-odd-year career, with share prices meaningfully diverging from earnings and prospects. It’s reflected all the greed and fear of investor behaviour.
ASX reporting season focuses on how earnings compare to forecasts, yet there's little mention of how dividends perform versus expectations. A new scorecard aims to rectify this to help income-focused portfolios.
Companies have been slow to update guidance and we have yet to see the impact of inflation expectations in earnings and outlooks. Companies need to insulate costs from inflation while enjoying an uptick in revenue.
Weaker share prices may have already discounted some bad news, but cost inflation is creating wide divergences inside and across sectors. Early results show some companies are strong enough to resist sector falls.
Earnings downgrades are not always bad news. They may present buy-side opportunities if the stock is oversold. It's best to assess the circumstances via a checklist without panicking.
If high levels of intangibles are not written down by the auditors – even after years of generating mediocre returns – the market will often do the writing down for them. Either way, shareholders receive lousy returns.
This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.
An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.
LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.
Australian housing’s 50-year boom was driven by falling rates and rising borrowing power — not rent or yield. With those drivers exhausted, future returns must reconcile with economic fundamentals. Are we ready?
Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?
This week, I got the news that my mother has dementia. It came shortly after my father received the same diagnosis. This is a meditation on getting old and my regrets in not getting my parents’ affairs in order sooner.