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Economic Cycles

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From macro to micro: end-of-cycle investing

For a decade of accommodative central bank monetary policy, investors have been more macro-oriented, following liquidity and rate patterns. It’s time to focus on companies and be more micro-oriented.

Recession and why timing markets doesn't pay

Inevitably, with each new development in this cycle, investors as what they can do to prepare for a recession. Our answer: revisit asset allocation, diversify, and review active risks in your portfolio.

What does the shape of the yield curve tell us?

Many experts are warning that over the past 60 years, the yield curve has inverted in advance of every recession, but will a yield curve inversion have a different result this time?

Can Australian credit continue to perform?

Australian credit markets have had a good run, and any investor tempted to exit the sector should consider whether a move now is too early in the cycle. A period of range-bound stability is the more likely outcome.

Reports of the death of economic cycles are greatly exaggerated

Since the 1950s, predictions on the death of economic cycles have come and gone, and each time they have been wrong. But since no two cycles are the same, we ought to look for what’s different this time.

Don’t sweat the big stuff

Too many variables affect the market and economies, and most are unforeseeable or overly complex to understand. Instead of wasting time on such macro issues, it's better to focus on your investment edge.

The major weaknesses of LICs and managed funds

Promoters of different investment structures obviously extol the virtues of their own products and highlight the weaknesses of others. What's interesting is that a weakness can also be a strength.

Fundamental indexing over the cycle

Fundamental indexing is now well-established in Australia, but has recently underperformed cap-weighted indexes. What is the longer-term outlook and rationale?

Anyone for a dip? Price falls a buying opportunity

Long term investors look forward to market-wide falls because good companies are sold off along with the rest. It gives a chance to buy into companies that were previously considered too expensive.

Who wins? Australians investing in US shares

In part 2 of Who Wins? we look at an Australian investor holding US shares compared with an investment in the local market, plus the relationship between inflation and exchange rates.

Who wins? Australia versus US in local shares

A study of Australia's stock market returns for Australian investors versus the returns from the US stock market for US investors uncovers some interesting trends. Where do the returns come from in each country?

Is this time different for trend-following funds?

Most trend-following funds (managed futures or CTAs) have performed poorly recently, and investors are asking if they will work again. History shows how crisis and non-crisis periods influence this investment style.

Most viewed in recent weeks

10 little-known pension traps prove the value of advice

Most people entering retirement do not see a financial adviser, mainly due to cost. It's a major problem because there are small mistakes a retiree can make which are expensive and avoidable if a few tips were known.

Check eligibility for the Commonwealth Seniors Health Card

Eligibility for the Commonwealth Seniors Health Card has no asset test and a relatively high income test. It's worth checking eligibility and the benefits of qualifying to save on the cost of medications.

Hamish Douglass on why the movie hasn’t ended yet

The focus is on Magellan for its investment performance and departure of the CEO, but Douglass says the pandemic, inflation, rising rates and Middle East tensions have not played out. Vindication is always long term.

Start the year right with the 2022 Retiree Checklist

This is our annual checklist of what retirees need to be aware of in 2022. It is a long list of 25 items and not everything will apply to your situation. Run your eye over the benefits and entitlements.

At 98-years-old, Charlie Munger still delivers the one-liners

The Warren Buffett/Charlie Munger partnership is the stuff of legends, but even Charlie admits it is coming to an end ("I'm nearly dead"). He is one of the few people in investing prepared to say what he thinks.

Should I pay off the mortgage or top up my superannuation?

Depending on personal circumstances, it may be time to rethink the bias to paying down housing debt over wealth accumulation in super. Do the sums and ask these four questions to plan for your future.

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