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20 May 2026

Home / Economic Outlook

Economic Outlook

1-12 out of 30 results.

Why economic forecasts are rarely right (but we still need them)

Economic experts, including the RBA, get plenty of forecasts wrong, but that doesn't make such forecasts worthless. The key isn't to predict perfectly – it's to understand the range of possibilities and plan accordingly.

Chalmers' disingenuous budget claims

The Treasurer often touts a $207 billion improvement in Australia's financial position. A deeper look at the numbers reveals something less impressive, caused far more by commodity price surprises than policy.

Podcast: US recession risks and a simple wealth-creating strategy

Brandywine Global's Richard Rauch warns of US and global recession risks, Vanguard's Duncan Burns on building a simple, effective investment portfolio, and Peter Warnes on the Australian market outlook for 2024.

2023: a tale of two halves

Next year is when inflation falls, economies stall, central banks continue to tighten decisively in the first half, and are on hold by mid-year through to year-end. That'll pave the way for sustained policy easing in 2024.

The impact of inflation on retirement incomes

Australian Ethical’s Head of Asset Allocation takes a look back at the major forces influencing markets in 2022, the impact of inflation on retirement incomes and shares his long-term views for asset classes.

Pivoting from high inflation to global recession

For the world’s central banks, the second half of 2022 has been dominated by addressing ‘today’s problem’ of high inflation. In 2023, the banks will switch focus to 'tomorrow's problem': global growth and unemployment.

Why emerging markets have reached an inflexion point

Emerging markets have been out of favour with investors. But the current sell-off is approaching its end just as global demand for ‘transition’ metals takes off, and that means emerging markets may be ready to take off.

Lessons for our Year 12 economics students and investors

Much economic success is based on private goods, where the benefit derives to the owner. The challenge for economics is with public goods, and our current Year 12 students are learning to address market failures.

Investment forecasts unreliable in unpredictable times

We use weather forecasts to inform our planning but they do not entirely drive decision making. The same should happen with investment outlooks. A globally diversified portfolio will serve best in unpredictable times.

Are older Australians re-assessing the job market?

The Great Retirement could lead to a tighter job market and higher wages. Older Aussies may see greater health risks at work, while others may elect to smell the roses given the experience of the past 18 months.

Reality may be worse than the Intergenerational Report expects

The Intergenerational Report is an opportunity to talk about ways to a better future, but it is not the one outlined in the paper. It has too many generous assumptions while the budget will always be in deficit.

Four reasons emerging markets should outperform post-COVID

The pandemic has shown that the emerging market complex is more mature, with central bank discipline, strong demand for commodities and a positive outlook for currencies. Diversification into EM is worth a look.

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2 billion reasons to fix retirement income

A proposal to address Australia's 'stranded balances' in retirement by requiring super funds to transition members to pension phase at 65, boosting retirement income and reframing super as a source of income.

The ultimate superannuation EOFY checklist 2026

Here is a checklist of 28 important issues you should address before June 30 to ensure your SMSF or other super fund is in order and that you are making the most of the strategies available.

Do super funds need a massive wake up call?

UK retirement expert, Guy Opperman, believes super funds are failing at supporting members in deaccumulation. Here is what Australia should do about it. 

Two months into retirement

A retirement researcher's take on retirement and her focus on each of her six resource buckets to stay engaged during the transition and beyond.

Reforming the taxation of wealth and wealth transfers

As the budget approaches debate continues about the need and method for addressing wealth inequality. Could reinstating wealth transfer taxes be the answer?

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 662 with weekend update

The debate over the budget is increasingly shaped by frustration and perceptions of unfairness, rather than clear-eyed assessment of policy outcomes.

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