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Friday, 17 September 2021
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The Intergenerational Report is an opportunity to talk about ways to a better future, but it is not the one outlined in the paper. It has too many generous assumptions while the budget will always be in deficit.
The pandemic has shown that the emerging market complex is more mature, with central bank discipline, strong demand for commodities and a positive outlook for currencies. Diversification into EM is worth a look.
Every five years, we receive a snapshot of what Australia may look like in 40 years. We will live longer with more spending on health, pensions and super but with fewer workers. Where will 40 million people live?
While western policymakers aim to sustain economic recovery, Chinese post-pandemic policy normalisation is a headwind with slower credit growth, less government bond issuance and a reduction in the fiscal deficit.
Despite the wave of optimism currently sweeping markets, some negative factors demand caution. Extraordinarily low interest rates is pushing up equities as investors choose the 'lesser evil' in asset allocations.
The next phase of recovery depends on immunity to COVID and reduced consumer reluctance to engage in normal economic activities. What are the various scenarios and how do they influence a balanced portfolio?
‘It's your money’ flouts the strict superannuation access rules we have accepted since 1992, and many are putting short-term wants ahead of long-term needs. Is this the best outcome for 2.6 million people?
With signs that the economic recession will not be as deep as first feared, many companies will emerge strongly with robust business models. Here are the sectors with the best opportunities.
While the shutting of Australia’s borders to international travellers and quarantine measures is damaging to certain sectors of the economy, it is not uniformly negative for all companies.
Population decline is a new, yet largely ignored, trend with underrated economic and social costs. Much of the growth that drives economies, especially in Australia, comes from population increases.
A one sentence stream of consciousness born after listening to too many 'what-ifs' and 'on-the-other-hands' will leave you sitting firmly on the fence, which is neither a comfortable nor useful position.
Aggressive and sustained policy actions by central banks in the wake of the GFC are threatening the stability of global economies and pushing investors towards higher-risk investment options.
Who knew? With some surprise results, the Government is on unexpected firm ground in asking people to draw on all their assets in retirement, although the comments show what feisty and informed readers we have.
It's a remarkable statistic. In any year since 1875, if you had invested in the Australian stock index, turned away and come back eight years later, your average return would be 120% with no negative periods.
Never stand between Australian households and an uncapped government programme with $3 billion in ‘free money’ to build or renovate their homes. But excess supply is coming with an absence of net migration.
Picking macro trends is difficult. What may seem logical and compelling one minute may completely change a few months later. There are better rewards from focussing on identifying the best companies at good prices.
Some high-quality companies have emerged even stronger since the onset of COVID and are well placed for outperformance. We call these the ‘COVID Opportunists’ as they are now dominating their specific sectors.
Critics of franking credits are missing the main point. The taxable income of shareholders/taxpayers must also include the company tax previously paid to the ATO before the dividend was distributed. It is fair.