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17 June 2026

Home / Economic Outlook

Economic Outlook

1-12 out of 32 results.

Markets without a margin for error

From US fiscal pressure to China’s shifting growth model and Australia’s structural constraints, markets are yet to reflect a less forgiving global investment landscape.

The folly of the Iran war

From oil shocks to fractured alliances, the Iran war carries the hallmarks of a historic policy misstep - one that could tip an already fragile global economy into crisis.

Why economic forecasts are rarely right (but we still need them)

Economic experts, including the RBA, get plenty of forecasts wrong, but that doesn't make such forecasts worthless. The key isn't to predict perfectly – it's to understand the range of possibilities and plan accordingly.

Chalmers' disingenuous budget claims

The Treasurer often touts a $207 billion improvement in Australia's financial position. A deeper look at the numbers reveals something less impressive, caused far more by commodity price surprises than policy.

Podcast: US recession risks and a simple wealth-creating strategy

Brandywine Global's Richard Rauch warns of US and global recession risks, Vanguard's Duncan Burns on building a simple, effective investment portfolio, and Peter Warnes on the Australian market outlook for 2024.

2023: a tale of two halves

Next year is when inflation falls, economies stall, central banks continue to tighten decisively in the first half, and are on hold by mid-year through to year-end. That'll pave the way for sustained policy easing in 2024.

The impact of inflation on retirement incomes

Australian Ethical’s Head of Asset Allocation takes a look back at the major forces influencing markets in 2022, the impact of inflation on retirement incomes and shares his long-term views for asset classes.

Pivoting from high inflation to global recession

For the world’s central banks, the second half of 2022 has been dominated by addressing ‘today’s problem’ of high inflation. In 2023, the banks will switch focus to 'tomorrow's problem': global growth and unemployment.

Why emerging markets have reached an inflexion point

Emerging markets have been out of favour with investors. But the current sell-off is approaching its end just as global demand for ‘transition’ metals takes off, and that means emerging markets may be ready to take off.

Lessons for our Year 12 economics students and investors

Much economic success is based on private goods, where the benefit derives to the owner. The challenge for economics is with public goods, and our current Year 12 students are learning to address market failures.

Investment forecasts unreliable in unpredictable times

We use weather forecasts to inform our planning but they do not entirely drive decision making. The same should happen with investment outlooks. A globally diversified portfolio will serve best in unpredictable times.

Are older Australians re-assessing the job market?

The Great Retirement could lead to a tighter job market and higher wages. Older Aussies may see greater health risks at work, while others may elect to smell the roses given the experience of the past 18 months.

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Noel Whittaker’s take on the budget

Marketed as a fix for inequality and housing affordability, the latest budget instead delivers a tangle of tax changes that leave everyday Australians worse off.

Australia has no death duties. Technically.

Australia may not levy formal death duties, but a growing web of tax measures is quietly shaping what wealth passes between generations. Now, the 2026 budget adds another layer.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 662 with weekend update

The debate over the budget is increasingly shaped by frustration and perceptions of unfairness, rather than clear-eyed assessment of policy outcomes.

How inflation is quietly moving the goalposts on retirement

Inflation doesn’t just raise today’s bills - it quietly increases the amount needed to retire, while simultaneously making it harder to save. Three steps to take before June 30th to improve retirement outcomes.

How to minimise tax with a will

Inheritance tax implications in Australia may surprise some, as poor estate planning without proper wills or trusts can lead to costly tax bills and delays for beneficiaries.

Back to the future - Why indexing CGT is a good idea

A return to indexation of capital gains would be a fairer way to compensate households for the effects of inflation than the current discount. Importantly, it opens the door to future, broader reforms to stop the taxation of inflation.

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