Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.
Thursday, 13 August 2020
Recently trending After 30 years of investing, I prefer to skip this partyAustralian house prices: Part 2, the bigger picture How to handle the riskiest company results in historyAustralian house prices: Part 1, how worried should we be?Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 369
Scott Pape, author of The Barefoot Investor: "I'm an avid reader of Cuffelinks. Thanks for the wonderful resource you have here, it really is first class."
Jonathan Hoyle, CEO, Stanford Brown: "A fabulous publication. The only must-read weekly publication for the Australian wealth management industry."
Reader: "Best innovation I have seen whilst an investor for 25 years. The writers are brilliant. A great publication which I look forward to."
Reader: "I can quickly sort the items that I am interested in, then research them more fully. It is also a regular reminder that I need to do this."
Reader: "An island of professionalism in an ocean of shallow self-interest. Well done!"
Steve: "The best that comes into our world each week. This is the only one that is never, ever canned before fully being reviewed by yours truly."
Rob Henshaw: "When I open my computer each day it's the first link I click - a really great read."
Ian Kelly, CFP, BTACS Financial Services: "Probably the best source of commentary and information I have seen over the past 20 years."
Eleanor Dartnall, AFA Adviser of the Year, 2014: "Our clients love your newsletter. Your articles are avidly read by advisers and they learn a great deal."
Reader: "Keep it up - the independence is refreshing and is demonstrated by the variety of well credentialed commentators."
Australian Investors Association: "Australia's foremost independent financial newsletter for professionals and self-directed investors."
John Pearce, Chief Investment Officer, Unisuper: "Out of the (many many) investmentrelated emails I get, Cuffelinks is one that I always open."
Andrew Buchan, Partner, HLB Mann Judd: "I have told you a thousand times it's the best newsletter."
Reader: "Is one of very few places an investor can go and not have product rammed down their throat. Love your work!"
Reader: " Finding a truly independent and interesting read has been magical for me. Please keep it up and don't change!"
Reader: "Love it, just keep doing what you are doing. It is the right length too, any longer and it might become a bit overwhelming."
Reader: "Carry on as you are - well done. The average investor/SMSF trustee needs all the help they can get."
Ian Silk, CEO, AustralianSuper: "It has become part of my required reading: quality thinking, and (mercifully) to the point."
Reader: "It's excellent so please don't pollute the content with boring mainstream financial 'waffle' and adverts for stuff we don't want!"
David Goldschmidt, Chartered Accountant: "I find this a really excellent newsletter. The best I get. Keep up the good work!"
Don Stammer, leading Australian economist: "Congratulations to all associated. It deserves the good following it has."
Reader: "I subscribe to two newsletters. This is my first read of the week. Thank you. Excellent and please keep up the good work!"
John Egan, Egan Associates: "My heartiest congratulations. Your panel of contributors is very impressive and keep your readers fully informed."
Vishal Teckchandani, Content Editor, nabtrade: "Exceptional investment literature of the highest possible quality."
Reader: "Great resource. Cuffelinks is STILL the one and only weekly newsletter I regularly read."
Noel Whittaker, author and financial adviser: "A fabulous weekly newsletter that is packed full of independent financial advice."
Reader: "The BEST in the game because of diversity and not aligned to financial products. Stands above all the noise."
Reader: "Congratulations on a great focussed news source. Australia has a dearth of good quality unbiased financial and wealth management news."
With signs that the economic recession will not be as deep as first feared, many companies will emerge strongly with robust business models. Here are the sectors with the best opportunities.
While the shutting of Australia’s borders to international travellers and quarantine measures is damaging to certain sectors of the economy, it is not uniformly negative for all companies.
Population decline is a new, yet largely ignored, trend with underrated economic and social costs. Much of the growth that drives economies, especially in Australia, comes from population increases.
A one sentence stream of consciousness born after listening to too many 'what-ifs' and 'on-the-other-hands' will leave you sitting firmly on the fence, which is neither a comfortable nor useful position.
Aggressive and sustained policy actions by central banks in the wake of the GFC are threatening the stability of global economies and pushing investors towards higher-risk investment options.
Rising bond and equity markets and increases in profit's share of GDP at the expense of labour have created greater wealth inequity, and the resulting political risks will unsettle markets.
The RBA follows a fairly standard formula when drafting its interest rate announcements each month and a keen observer might detect a change in view before an actual change in interest rates.
The best end-of-year wrap of asset class performance in 2015. Aussie equities was a loser but who were the winners, and what's the outlook for each asset class in 2016?
This period of ultra low interest rates and government-stimulated economies has created an overly optimistic view of world economic growth, which will have implications for future retirement savings returns.
Since 1973, the Year of the Goat has generated the highest average returns among the 12 Chinese zodiac symbols, averaging an impressive 45.3% each year. Will this continue in 2015?
A change in India’s leadership has given hope to those tired of corruption, bureaucracy and slow economic growth. Despite many challenges, it is possible that India will become the top performing market in Asia.
Debate around the issues that face Brazil is vigorous and while the government knows what the challenges are, it could instead be Brazil’s social fabric that drives change, with the help of the World Cup.
Eventually, prices become so extreme they bear no relationship to reality, and a bubble forms. I believe we are there today, not for all stocks but for many in the technology space.
There is good reason to believe the negatives will continue to outweigh the positives over the next 12 to 18 months. There is more concern about house prices than the short-term indicators suggest.
It is better to miss a results bounce and buy after the company has delivered than it is to step on a landmine. With such uncertainty, avoid FOMO by following these result season investing tips.
Three key indicators are useful for predicting the short-term outlook for house prices, although tighter lockdowns make the outlook gloomier. There is enough doubt to create cause for concern.
Imagine you had perfect foresight about COVID-19 at the start of the year. You correctly foresaw that the global pandemic would kill over 700,000 among 20 million infections by August. In Australia, borders would close, cities would be locked down, most mortgagors would be on income support and companies would be allowed to trade while insolvent. You then had to guess how much the stock market would fall. Would you say about 10%?
Sometimes the simplest ideas are the best. The founders of Afterpay stumbled on the attraction for consumers of paying by instalments, and now retailers must offer the facility or lose business.