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14 July 2025

Home / Economic Outlook

Economic Outlook

1-12 out of 29 results.

Chalmers' disingenuous budget claims

The Treasurer often touts a $207 billion improvement in Australia's financial position. A deeper look at the numbers reveals something less impressive, caused far more by commodity price surprises than policy.

Podcast: US recession risks and a simple wealth-creating strategy

Brandywine Global's Richard Rauch warns of US and global recession risks, Vanguard's Duncan Burns on building a simple, effective investment portfolio, and Peter Warnes on the Australian market outlook for 2024.

2023: a tale of two halves

Next year is when inflation falls, economies stall, central banks continue to tighten decisively in the first half, and are on hold by mid-year through to year-end. That'll pave the way for sustained policy easing in 2024.

The impact of inflation on retirement incomes

Australian Ethical’s Head of Asset Allocation takes a look back at the major forces influencing markets in 2022, the impact of inflation on retirement incomes and shares his long-term views for asset classes.

Pivoting from high inflation to global recession

For the world’s central banks, the second half of 2022 has been dominated by addressing ‘today’s problem’ of high inflation. In 2023, the banks will switch focus to 'tomorrow's problem': global growth and unemployment.

Why emerging markets have reached an inflexion point

Emerging markets have been out of favour with investors. But the current sell-off is approaching its end just as global demand for ‘transition’ metals takes off, and that means emerging markets may be ready to take off.

Lessons for our Year 12 economics students and investors

Much economic success is based on private goods, where the benefit derives to the owner. The challenge for economics is with public goods, and our current Year 12 students are learning to address market failures.

Investment forecasts unreliable in unpredictable times

We use weather forecasts to inform our planning but they do not entirely drive decision making. The same should happen with investment outlooks. A globally diversified portfolio will serve best in unpredictable times.

Are older Australians re-assessing the job market?

The Great Retirement could lead to a tighter job market and higher wages. Older Aussies may see greater health risks at work, while others may elect to smell the roses given the experience of the past 18 months.

Reality may be worse than the Intergenerational Report expects

The Intergenerational Report is an opportunity to talk about ways to a better future, but it is not the one outlined in the paper. It has too many generous assumptions while the budget will always be in deficit.

Four reasons emerging markets should outperform post-COVID

The pandemic has shown that the emerging market complex is more mature, with central bank discipline, strong demand for commodities and a positive outlook for currencies. Diversification into EM is worth a look.

Demographic destiny: a snapshot of Australia in 40 years

Every five years, we receive a snapshot of what Australia may look like in 40 years. We will live longer with more spending on health, pensions and super but with fewer workers. Where will 40 million people live?

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Raising the GST to 15%

Treasurer Jim Chalmers aims to tackle tax reform but faces challenges. Previous reviews struggled due to political sensitivities, highlighting the need for comprehensive and politically feasible change.

7 examples of how the new super tax will be calculated

You've no doubt heard about Division 296. These case studies show what people at various levels above the $3 million threshold might need to pay the ATO, with examples ranging from under $500 to more than $35,000.

The revolt against Baby Boomer wealth

The $3m super tax could be put down to the Government needing money and the wealthy being easy targets. It’s deeper than that though and this looks at the factors behind the policy and why more taxes on the wealthy are coming.

Meg on SMSFs: Withdrawing assets ahead of the $3m super tax

The super tax has caused an almighty scuffle, but for SMSFs impacted by the proposed tax, a big question remains: what should they do now? Here are ideas for those wanting to withdraw money from their SMSF.

Are franking credits hurting Australia’s economy?

Business investment and per capita GDP have languished over the past decade and the Labor Government is conducting inquiries to find out why. Franking credits should be part of the debate about our stalling economy.

Here's what should replace the $3 million super tax

With Div. 296 looming, is there a smarter way to tax superannuation? This proposes a fairer, income-linked alternative that respects compounding, ensures predictability, and avoids taxing unrealised capital gains. 

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