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Tuesday, 21 September 2021
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The gradual switch to electric vehicles is underway, but given the obvious shortcomings of fossil fuels, there are a surprising number of problems electric cars need to overcome. EVs have not yet won the race.
At the moment, oil is the only energy source that can satisfy global demand, but low-carbon power is increasing supply and cost effectiveness. Will the oil price hold up while the fuel is gradually replaced?
As fewer professionals actively research the merits of a company’s prospects, stocks become disproportionately driven by capital flows. Prices disconnect from fundamentals and there's no better example than Tesla.
We tend to call any change a 'disruption', but the vast majority of so-called disruptive technologies are variations on a theme. Many innovations are really high-risk, low-probability investments.
Tesla has stunned the doubters, especially those shorting the stock. To understand the share prices of these disruptive companies, look to the big picture of changes to whole-of-world issues.
Within a few years, a massive global industry will shift its well-established form entirely as electric vehicles become the norm. But the opportunities might not be among the car makers.
Who knew? With some surprise results, the Government is on unexpected firm ground in asking people to draw on all their assets in retirement, although the comments show what feisty and informed readers we have.
The RBA Governor says rising house prices are due to "the design of our taxation and social security systems". The OECD says "the prolonged boom in house prices has inflated the wealth of many pensioners without impacting their pension eligibility." What's your view?
It's a remarkable statistic. In any year since 1875, if you had invested in the Australian stock index, turned away and come back eight years later, your average return would be 120% with no negative periods.
Never stand between Australian households and an uncapped government programme with $3 billion in ‘free money’ to build or renovate their homes. But excess supply is coming with an absence of net migration.
Picking macro trends is difficult. What may seem logical and compelling one minute may completely change a few months later. There are better rewards from focussing on identifying the best companies at good prices.
Some high-quality companies have emerged even stronger since the onset of COVID and are well placed for outperformance. We call these the ‘COVID Opportunists’ as they are now dominating their specific sectors.