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Equity Returns

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Does increasing geopolitical risk lead to higher equity market returns?

Increasing geopolitical tensions has investors on edge but one study shows evidence of a war premium for equity markets.

Investors beware: Bull markets don’t last forever

New research explains why high valuations, low dividends and bullish sentiment rarely coexist with strong long-term returns after extended bull markets. 

Investing at market peaks: The surprising truth

Many investors are hesitant to buy into a market that feels like it’s already climbed too far, too fast. But what does nearly a century of market history suggest about investing at peaks?

US shares: Ambitious multiples on ambitious EPS forecasts

Here's a detailed look at how current valuations and profit forecasts for the S&P 500 stack up versus history. The answer? Both seem excessive, making the market vulnerable to a correction or worse.

Investing in the backbone of the digital age

Semiconductors are used to make microchips and are essential to a vast range of technology and devices. This looks at what’s driving demand for chips, how the industry is evolving, and favoured stocks to play the theme.

Buy the dips?

The Australian stock market has had almost 40 dips of 10% or more since 1920, with many of these triggered by weakness in the US. What would have happened in each case had you 'bought the dip'?

The ASX is full of old, stodgy, low-growth companies

Eight of the ASX's top 10 stocks are more than a hundred years old, while in the US there's just one. It points to our market being filled with low-growth dinosaurs compared to the US where innovation and renewal rule.

Mapping future US market returns

Exceptional returns from the US sharemarket over the past decade have driven by sales growth, margin expansion, rising valuations, and dividends. Predicting future returns requires careful consideration of these factors.

This cornerstone of stock market valuation has been left behind

For decades, cyclically adjusted P/E ratios have been a common and widely accepted gauge of market valuation. But as the financial landscape continues to evolve, so too must our tools for understanding it.

Why buying speculative stocks often proves irresistible

So you want to buy a speculative stock in the hope that it goes to the moon and you can retire in the Bahamas. There's only one problem - once you start purchasing these types of stocks, it's often hard to stop.

Defence beats offence in investing

Many are comparing Nvidia’s historic run to Cisco Systems in the 1990s. Here is a thought experiment comparing the returns of Cisco since that period to a more conservative alternative, and the results might surprise you.

The options to gain equity exposure with less risk

Equity investing pays off over long terms but comes with risks in the short term that many people cannot tolerate, especially retirees preserving capital. There are ways to invest in stocks with little downside.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Ray Dalio on 2025’s real story, Trump, and what’s next

The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.

Making sense of record high markets as the world catches fire

The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.

3 ways to fix Australia’s affordability crisis

Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.

Is there a better way to reform the CGT discount?

The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.

How cutting the CGT discount could help rebalance housing market

A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 648 with weekend update

This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.

  • 5 February 2026

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