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Saturday, 5 December 2020
Recently trending Five ways the Retirement Review points to new policiesGraeme Shaw on why investing is at a pivotal momentRetirement Review gives strong views on hoarding of super11 key findings on retirement dreams during the pandemicBank scorecard 2020: when will the mojo return?
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The impact of the pandemic on Australia's debt and deficit has forced the government into borrowing on a scale unimaginable at the start of 2020. What are the implications, and what is even more important?
The 60/40 diversified portfolio has been the mainstay of the superannuation industry for decades. But it is built on a fundamental principle of defensive bond returns, and its time is nigh.
Going back to June 2019, investors would have questioned the logic of diversifying away from outperforming growth assets. But when markets feel at their best, it is paramount to keep a perspective on long-term goals.
Do you think investors can only lose heavily on bonds if the credit defaults? When bondholders accept 0.88% for 100 years, there is great potential for serious pain somewhere along the journey.
Australian bond rates are now lower than during recessions and depressions of the past, but it's not driven by local fundamentals. The world of interest rates is in a place it's never been before in history.
We like a good debate, and when two opposing views argued about the role of government bonds in a diversified portfolio, a veteran of 30 years in fixed interest stepped in as referee.
Government bonds do not feature in most retail portfolios, but they carry defensive qualities with income to offset the higher risks in other asset allocations. Are they always worth including?
Government bonds produced good returns last year, but at the current starting position of lower rates, the cost of defensiveness is probably a limited payoff.
Bonds have performed well for most of the last 30 years with a tailwind of easing liquidity, but the current high prices makes them vulnerable to losing their protective qualities.
Argentina's economic history shows there's no room for complacency, as the markets often lose their ability to judge risks in the wild search for performance.
A sign that the strong credit cycle is ending is the funding of some emerging market governments that are more than likely to default, but demand is driven by desire for yield regardless of risk.
It is widely believed that rising bond yields should be bad for share prices. But is this true in real life? The relationship between government bond yields and the price of shares is more complex than it first seems.
The Retirement Income Review goes much further than an innocent-sounding 'fact base', and is sure to guide policies in the run up to the next election. It will change how we think about retirement incomes.
Company profits have not improved for many years but higher valuations have been driven by falling rates and excess liquidity. Conditions do not suit a value and contrarian manager but here are some opportunities.
The Review includes some profound findings, most notable that retirement income should include drawing down far more capital. Expect post-retirement products to proliferate under a Retirement Income Covenant.
A mid-pandemic survey of over 1,000 people near or in retirement found three in four are not confident how long their money will last. Only 18% felt their money was safe during a strong economic downturn.
Banks severely cut dividends in 2020 but are expected to improve payments in 2021. History provides clues to when the banks will return to their 2019 levels of profitability, but who is positioned the best?
It's not only that 60 is the new 40, but 80 is the new 60. Many Baby Boomers spend up in retirement and are less inclined to leave a nest egg to their children. The ways wealth transfers will affect all investors.