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8 October 2025
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Supposedly a defensive asset class, bonds have endured a horror four years. A massive boom preceded a massive bust, though the recent downdraft means future prospects appear brighter for high quality bonds.
As investors navigate a potential recession and the possibility of higher interest rates for longer, the lure of fixed income is understandable. Here a primer to help investors decide which bonds may be best for them.
The Australian fixed income landscape has changed with conditions now likely to provide many of the defensive attributes that investors have traditionally expected. Asset allocations should be reviewed to reflect this.
The momentous rise in government bond yields since last year has had one unexpected effect: shrinking income distributions. This may be surprising given bond managers have been able to reinvest at progressively higher yields.
The Fed has finally signalled its intention to control inflation by reducing demand, and investors must become less comfortable with their financial prospects. Investing has changed and the consequences are serious.
There are plenty of voices on both sides of the inflation argument, but the ultimate impact of COVID should be deflationary. Australia is one of the last places to expect worrying signs of inflation rising.
The impact of the pandemic on Australia's debt and deficit has forced the government into borrowing on a scale unimaginable at the start of 2020. What are the implications, and what is even more important?
The 60/40 diversified portfolio has been the mainstay of the superannuation industry for decades. But it is built on a fundamental principle of defensive bond returns, and its time is nigh.
Going back to June 2019, investors would have questioned the logic of diversifying away from outperforming growth assets. But when markets feel at their best, it is paramount to keep a perspective on long-term goals.
Do you think investors can only lose heavily on bonds if the credit defaults? When bondholders accept 0.88% for 100 years, there is great potential for serious pain somewhere along the journey.
Australian bond rates are now lower than during recessions and depressions of the past, but it's not driven by local fundamentals. The world of interest rates is in a place it's never been before in history.
We like a good debate, and when two opposing views argued about the role of government bonds in a diversified portfolio, a veteran of 30 years in fixed interest stepped in as referee.
This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.
An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.
LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.
Australian housing’s 50-year boom was driven by falling rates and rising borrowing power — not rent or yield. With those drivers exhausted, future returns must reconcile with economic fundamentals. Are we ready?
Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?
This week, I got the news that my mother has dementia. It came shortly after my father received the same diagnosis. This is a meditation on getting old and my regrets in not getting my parents’ affairs in order sooner.