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28 February 2026
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It's been a golden period for investing for those willing to take some risk. Australia has experienced six straight years when everything went up, and this has never happened before in history.
In 1993, researchers in the US studied the phenomenon of winning stocks continuing to outperform losing stocks. Using both long and short positions one could theoretically outperform the market on a regular basis.
Elroy Dimson maintains the most comprehensive collection of global asset class data (from 1900) and is a leading authority on the history of financial markets. We find out how the numbers inform his own views on investing.
Obviously it’s best to sell high and buy low, but in the irrational world of stock markets, the past may offer little guide to the future. The most we can realistically expect is to learn how to tilt the odds in our favour.
Future returns from different asset classes are always uncertain and subject to contrary forecasts, but there are useful lessons from the past. As Shakespeare wrote in The Tempest, "What is past is prologue."
The arithmetic mean of the annual returns of the ASX/S&P200 since 1980 is 13.9% per annum, while the geometric mean is 11.6% per annum. This is an annual 2.3% gap. Which returns have you been watching?
The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.
The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.
Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.
The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.
A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.
This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.