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26 January 2026
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Nearly all the indicators an investor would look for suggest that this secular bull market is approaching its end. My models forecast that the US is set for 0% annual returns over the next decade.
The Australian stock market has had almost 40 dips of 10% or more since 1920, with many of these triggered by weakness in the US. What would have happened in each case had you 'bought the dip'?
Eight of the ASX's top 10 stocks are more than a hundred years old, while in the US there's just one. It points to our market being filled with low-growth dinosaurs compared to the US where innovation and renewal rule.
The outlook for equities in 2025 has been dominated by one question: will the US market's supremacy continue? Whichever side of the debate you sit on, you should challenge yourself by considering the alternative.
Economic growth in Australia looks to have bottomed, which means it makes sense to selectively add to cyclical exposures on the ASX in addition to key thematics like decarbonisation and technological change.
What is the catalyst for smalls caps to start outperforming their larger counterparts? Cheap relative valuation is bullish though it isn't a catalyst, so what else could drive a long-awaited turnaround?
Valuations for the Magnificent Seven stocks are baking in extraordinary growth over the next decade. History shows that delivering on high growth expectations is difficult, but will this time prove different?
Strong performance from large cap equities indices have lulled passive investors into the false security that their hands-off approach is easier and superior. Here's why that isn't sustainable and small caps are set to benefit.
There can be both good and bad reasons behind a company that has become a large cap. It is not always apparent, but understanding the reasons can help focus on what matters when finding large-cap stocks.
Checking global stocks with higher prices than the FANGAM stocks but weaker margins and growth identified almost 100 companies. Astonishingly, the ‘Heady Hundred’ are valued at over US$3 trillion.
Despite the rhetoric from some investors, backing smaller, riskier stocks in the Australian share market will not necessarily give better returns than larger, less volatile stocks.
The business environment has favoured massive dominant firms, but the question for the future is whether this is as good as it gets. Is the usual mean-reversion about to start?
What are the best ways to build a simple portfolio from scratch? I’ve addressed this issue before but think it’s worth revisiting given markets and the world have since changed, throwing up new challenges and things to consider.
Two years ago, I wrote an article suggesting that the odds favoured ASX shares easily outperforming residential property over the next decade. Here’s an update on where things stand today.
At this time last year, I forecast that 2025 would likely be a positive year given strong economic prospects and disinflation. The outlook for this year is less clear cut and here is what investors should do.
Treasury has released draft legislation for a new version of the controversial $3 million super tax. It's a significant improvement on the original proposal but there are some stings in the tail.
I’ve been comparing property and shares for decades and while both have their place, the differences are stark. When tax, costs, and liquidity are weighed, property looks less compelling than its reputation suggests.
The predictions include dividends will outstrip growth as a source of Australian equity returns, US market performance will be underwhelming, while US government bonds will beat gold.