Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.
Thursday, 6 August 2020
Recently trending A hard dose reality check on vaccinesAfter 30 years of investing, I prefer to skip this partyHow we have invested during COVID-19Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 367Is the '4% rule' for retirement broken?
Reader: "Keep it up - the independence is refreshing and is demonstrated by the variety of well credentialed commentators."
Don Stammer, leading Australian economist: "Congratulations to all associated. It deserves the good following it has."
Noel Whittaker, author and financial adviser: "A fabulous weekly newsletter that is packed full of independent financial advice."
Reader: "The BEST in the game because of diversity and not aligned to financial products. Stands above all the noise."
John Egan, Egan Associates: "My heartiest congratulations. Your panel of contributors is very impressive and keep your readers fully informed."
Reader: "An island of professionalism in an ocean of shallow self-interest. Well done!"
David Goldschmidt, Chartered Accountant: "I find this a really excellent newsletter. The best I get. Keep up the good work!"
Reader: "Congratulations on a great focussed news source. Australia has a dearth of good quality unbiased financial and wealth management news."
Australian Investors Association: "Australia's foremost independent financial newsletter for professionals and self-directed investors."
Ian Silk, CEO, AustralianSuper: "It has become part of my required reading: quality thinking, and (mercifully) to the point."
Reader: "Great resource. Cuffelinks is STILL the one and only weekly newsletter I regularly read."
Jonathan Hoyle, CEO, Stanford Brown: "A fabulous publication. The only must-read weekly publication for the Australian wealth management industry."
Reader: " Finding a truly independent and interesting read has been magical for me. Please keep it up and don't change!"
Reader: "I subscribe to two newsletters. This is my first read of the week. Thank you. Excellent and please keep up the good work!"
Steve: "The best that comes into our world each week. This is the only one that is never, ever canned before fully being reviewed by yours truly."
Reader: "Carry on as you are - well done. The average investor/SMSF trustee needs all the help they can get."
Andrew Buchan, Partner, HLB Mann Judd: "I have told you a thousand times it's the best newsletter."
Reader: "I can quickly sort the items that I am interested in, then research them more fully. It is also a regular reminder that I need to do this."
John Pearce, Chief Investment Officer, Unisuper: "Out of the (many many) investmentrelated emails I get, Cuffelinks is one that I always open."
Vishal Teckchandani, Content Editor, nabtrade: "Exceptional investment literature of the highest possible quality."
Ian Kelly, CFP, BTACS Financial Services: "Probably the best source of commentary and information I have seen over the past 20 years."
Eleanor Dartnall, AFA Adviser of the Year, 2014: "Our clients love your newsletter. Your articles are avidly read by advisers and they learn a great deal."
Reader: "Is one of very few places an investor can go and not have product rammed down their throat. Love your work!"
Scott Pape, author of The Barefoot Investor: "I'm an avid reader of Cuffelinks. Thanks for the wonderful resource you have here, it really is first class."
Rob Henshaw: "When I open my computer each day it's the first link I click - a really great read."
Reader: "Best innovation I have seen whilst an investor for 25 years. The writers are brilliant. A great publication which I look forward to."
Reader: "Love it, just keep doing what you are doing. It is the right length too, any longer and it might become a bit overwhelming."
Reader: "It's excellent so please don't pollute the content with boring mainstream financial 'waffle' and adverts for stuff we don't want!"
Markets always come back to fundamentals, valuations and liquidity, even when faced with a global pandemic. The key question is whether liquidity can hold up the market as the economic storm hits.
Large super funds hold unlisted assets such as infrastructure, property and private equity. It's likely many of these assets have not been revalued recently, inflating the price paid to members who exit.
An investment with any fund manager should be part of an asset allocation decision, but what happens when your equity manager decides to do a major switch to cash? It messes up your plan.
Equity market vigilanties, particularly resisting poor Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), are showing the benefits of active managers not simply buying everything put in front of them.
APRA’s letter to super funds highlights concerns about 'cash' investments. A lack of understanding might haunt investors when the next downturn comes as too many people forsake protection for yield.
One benefit of ETFs for investors is their tradability - being able to buy or sell at any time through the ASX just like an ordinary share. But this leads many investors to mistakenly evaluate their liquidity in the same way.
There's no straightforward answer to the question of whether a bond is liquid. Unfortunately, at the time when you most want to sell, everyone is likely to be running for the exit.
When deciding between listed and unlisted infrastructure securities, the focus should be on the cashflows, the risks associated with those cashflows and the entry price to buy the assets.
Despite similar objectives, the proportion of Australian superannuation assets in alternative and less liquid assets is much lower than for other long-term investors such as family offices and global pension funds.
Australia's defined contribution superannuation market seems to be obsessed with ‘liquid’ investments. For the long-term investment that super inherently is, it doesn't make sense to limit our options.
Shares are an excellent long-term investment, but the ease with which they can be bought and sold can be both a blessing and a curse. Just because you can, doesn’t mean you should.
Despite the Federal Reserve's tapering of its QE policy, liquidity in developed economies will remain abundant with the major central banks adding another USD1 trillion in 2014. But watch for global inflation.
With 160 programmes underway and billions of dollars spent on COVID-19 vaccines, investors are drawn to optimistic news. However, the company that has developed most new vaccines has a sober view.
Eventually, prices become so extreme they bear no relationship to reality, and a bubble forms. I believe we are there today, not for all stocks but for many in the technology space.
With signs that the economic recession will not be as deep as first feared, many companies will emerge strongly with robust business models. Here are the sectors with the best opportunities.
There is a similarity between the current health crisis and economic crises of the past. For COVID-19, record amounts of biotech funding from government agencies and private companies are looking for a vaccine. Likewise, central banks once struggled treating recessions but the 'vaccine' now is record amounts of financial stimulus to ensure liquidity. While the world awaits a COVID treatment, markets are purring along, at least until side effects hit.
The traditional 4% rule was designed to ensure retirees do not run out of money, but low interest rates and expensive equity markets question the sustainability of the level. What are the alternatives?
It’s not only products and business models that create wealth. Management teams make decisions on how to deploy capital and such actions drive vastly different outcomes over time.