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Friday, 25 June 2021
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The outlook for emerging market debt in 2021 revolves around liquidity, uneven recoveries and debt sustainability. Damage has been done to many countries’ finances and watch for central banks withdrawing support.
At some point, policymakers will turn to the task of deleveraging, to work off massive debt burdens built up during the pandemic. Australia is already ticking the boxes on many policies used in the past.
Markets always come back to fundamentals, valuations and liquidity, even when faced with a global pandemic. The key question is whether liquidity can hold up the market as the economic storm hits.
Large super funds hold unlisted assets such as infrastructure, property and private equity. It's likely many of these assets have not been revalued recently, inflating the price paid to members who exit.
An investment with any fund manager should be part of an asset allocation decision, but what happens when your equity manager decides to do a major switch to cash? It messes up your plan.
Equity market vigilanties, particularly resisting poor Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), are showing the benefits of active managers not simply buying everything put in front of them.
APRA’s letter to super funds highlights concerns about 'cash' investments. A lack of understanding might haunt investors when the next downturn comes as too many people forsake protection for yield.
One benefit of ETFs for investors is their tradability - being able to buy or sell at any time through the ASX just like an ordinary share. But this leads many investors to mistakenly evaluate their liquidity in the same way.
There's no straightforward answer to the question of whether a bond is liquid. Unfortunately, at the time when you most want to sell, everyone is likely to be running for the exit.
When deciding between listed and unlisted infrastructure securities, the focus should be on the cashflows, the risks associated with those cashflows and the entry price to buy the assets.
Despite similar objectives, the proportion of Australian superannuation assets in alternative and less liquid assets is much lower than for other long-term investors such as family offices and global pension funds.
Australia's defined contribution superannuation market seems to be obsessed with ‘liquid’ investments. For the long-term investment that super inherently is, it doesn't make sense to limit our options.
Among the share success stories is a poor personal experience as Telstra's service needs improving. Plus why the new budget announcements on downsizing and buying a home don't deserve the super hype.
Jeremy Grantham has seen it all before, with bubbles every 15 years or so. The higher you go, the longer and greater the fall. You can have a high-priced asset or a high-yielding asset, but not both at the same time.
The focus on predicting the recovery from the pandemic is the wrong emphasis. Better to identify great companies benefitting from market changes over a three- to five-year horizon with or without COVID.
Don’t look at an earnings forecast or a DCF valuation or a broker target price for a mining company. Share price forecasts are only as good as the commodity price assumptions they are based on, and they are a guess.
Blink and it happened. If announcements in this sector were made by a producer of iron ore, gas, copper or some new tech, the news would have been splashed across the front pages. Have we witnessed a major change?
A comprehensive review of dozens of LICs shows how they performed in the crucial 'peak to peak' of COVID. This 14 months tested the mettle and strategies of a sector often under fire, with many strong results.