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Tuesday, 15 June 2021
Recently trending Super changes, the Budget and 2021 versus 2022Noel's share winners and loser plus budget reality checkGrantham interview on the coming day of reckoningWhoyagonnacall? 10 unspoken risks buying off-the-planBuffett says stock picking is too hard for most investors
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Warren Buffett's annual letter has a simple focus on long-term investing: "All that’s required is the passage of time, an inner calm, ample diversification and a minimisation of transactions and fees."
There are pockets of bubble pricing in some assets that can pop at any time, but overall, valuations are frothy but prices of most companies can be sustained if not hit by rising bond rates.
FANMAG returns have been strong but not relative to their predecessors. Looking at a broader group of large tech companies, most have lagged the market. Fad-based investing is no substitute for broad diversification.
Warren Buffett's investment portfolio gains attention because of his legendary status, but parts of his empire in insurance, railways, metalworking and aircraft suppliers have been damaged by the pandemic.
Investors with heavy allocations to a broad US index should check how much is exposed to tech stocks, especially when valuations look a bit steep. It might be time to reallocate to other sectors or styles.
The connectivity enabled by the ‘super platforms’ of Facebook, Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Tencent and Alibaba is creating the best investment opportunities as business catches on.
Checking global stocks with higher prices than the FANGAM stocks but weaker margins and growth identified almost 100 companies. Astonishingly, the ‘Heady Hundred’ are valued at over US$3 trillion.
Eventually, prices become so extreme they bear no relationship to reality, and a bubble forms. I believe we are there today, not for all stocks but for many in the technology space.
At a time when value investing is under attack, a reminder that Benjamin Graham heavily influenced Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, and they have built his ideas into broad investing strategies.
Investors underestimate the power of network effects, which increase the lifetime value of users and deliver high incremental margins with fixed operating costs. It's worth trawling the market for strong network effects.
Although some domestic cyclical companies currently offer value, the attraction of offshore growth is a key factor for investors, including strong Australian companies with global aspirations.
Most S&P500 companies are doing well with recent reported earnings above expectations. In the tech sector, the Big Five (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, Alphabet) have also diversified their income sources.
Josh Frydenberg's third budget contained changes to superannuation and other rules but their effective date is expected to be 1 July 2022. Take care not to confuse them with changes due on 1 July 2021.
Among the share success stories is a poor personal experience as Telstra's service needs improving. Plus why the new budget announcements on downsizing and buying a home don't deserve the super hype.
Jeremy Grantham has seen it all before, with bubbles every 15 years or so. The higher you go, the longer and greater the fall. You can have a high-priced asset or a high-yielding asset, but not both at the same time.
All new apartment buildings have defects, and inexperienced owners assume someone else will fix them. But developers and builders will not volunteer to spend time and money unless someone fights them. Part 1
Warren Buffett explained why he believes most investors should not pick stocks but simply own an S&P 500 index fund. "There's a lot more to picking stocks than figuring out what’s going to be a wonderful industry."
The global recession came quickly and deeply but it has given way to a strong rebound. What are the lessons for investors, how should a portfolio change and what role will inflation play?