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18 January 2025
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Retirement is a time of great excitement but it is also one of uncertainty. This is hardly surprising given the daunting move from receiving a steady outcome to relying on savings and investments.
Why is only half of our retirement income system based on compulsion? From an economic point of view, it simply may not make sense to have a compulsory retirement system that switches to voluntary at retirement.
Despite the alarm sounded by six Intergenerational Reports, Australia is unprepared to meet the needs of its ageing population. Older people need help to get work if needed, access community care, and better connect with others.
Economic surprises like an inflationary spike, slow growth and recession can lead to a swift market downturn, further complicating the ability of retirees to preserve capital while taking income.
The way home ownership relates to retirement income is rated a 'D', as in Distortion, Decumulation and Denial. For many, their home is their largest asset but it's least likely to be used for retirement income.
The Government should fix the problems in the pension phase that are leaving gaps for vulnerable groups. Unless these problems are resolved, 9.5% will not deliver adequate retirement incomes.
Super counts for only 20% of the wealth of Australians. For retirement incomes, most younger people today will still receive most of their income from the age pension when they retire in three decades’ time.
Australia has an opportunity to build a world-class decumulation system that gives individuals security and flexibility in retirement, but it's different from the accumulation phase (republished from 2013).
Retirement planning will become increasingly complex in the face of trends in home ownership, wealth dispersion, life expectancy, health and aged care costs, work patterns and pension dependency.
We don’t know what the world will look like in 2050, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't think about it and plan for different scenarios. Demographic change and growth in emerging markets are major themes.
In recent years, our retirement arrangements, and particularly the superannuation component, have been losing their lustre because of the many changes in regulations already made and in prospect.
We will have a significant retirement funding problem for at least the next 30 years. We need super to reduce the future tax burden on those employed who will be asked to support an ageing population.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.
2024 was a banner year for equities, with a run-up in US tech stocks broadening into a global market rally, and the big question now is whether the good times can continue? History suggests optimism is warranted.