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Wednesday, 5 August 2020
Recently trending A hard dose reality check on vaccinesAfter 30 years of investing, I prefer to skip this partyHow we have invested during COVID-19Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 367Is the '4% rule' for retirement broken?
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In September 2019, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg announced the Retirement Income Review, with a public consultation paper to be released in November 2019 and a final report to the Government by June 2020. One of the three panel members is Dr Deborah Ralston, who in her previous roles, has written several articles for Firstlinks.
As a general guide to what Dr Ralston may be thinking, we republish an article from 2013. At the time, she was Executive Director of the Australian Centre for Financial Studies (ACFS), which published the Pension Index in conjunction with Mercer. We have often republished past articles by leading authors, accepting that their thoughts may have developed further.
ACFS is now the Monash Centre for Financial Studies, which is part of Monash Business School. Coincidentally, the 2019 Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index has just been released, linked here, ranking Australia third in the world, behind only The Netherlands and Denmark, as we were six years ago.
The release of the latest Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index earlier this month once again confirmed Australia as having a world class retirement system, coming in third out of 20 countries behind Denmark and The Netherlands.
In the past, employees lucky enough to be in a defined benefit scheme (and the majority weren’t) were guaranteed a retirement pension traditionally linked to their years of service and salary. But with the advent of compulsory superannuation in 1992 and defined contribution schemes, the onus shifted to the individual to be responsible for their retirement income.
What do these retirees seek? The report identifies the ongoing financial needs of retirees as a 'trilemma' which includes:
Quite obviously, this combination of different needs facing individuals over the course of their retirement means there is no ideal solution. Even an indexed annuity will not meet every individual’s varying financial needs during their different stages of retirement.
This is indeed a complex problem and the best solution for any individual will depend on a range of factors including their total wealth, health and likely longevity, required standard of living, access to the age pension, etc. At the same time, the needs of individuals must be balanced with the public interest so that clear incentives are in place to encourage personal responsibility and avoid over-reliance on the public purse.
For the industry, legislators and administrators, how to solve the trilemma will be the issue in the coming years. So what’s required? The industry needs to provide the right products for an income stream – a portfolio of products that meet individual needs. This portfolio should include features such as:
People need to be educated about retirement, in particular the need to focus on consumption and not investment; it is a quite different phase to the accumulation stage. Research shows that people are typically happier in retirement, but in the immediate years preceding it worry about what will happen and, significantly, often fail to plan for it. The onus has to be on superannuation funds to invest more resources in educating their members about retirement – to literally change their mindsets.
For this to happen the government of the day has to articulate the main objectives of the retirement income system (including the role of the pension). It’s an issue that will encompass social, economic and tax policies and will require strong leadership, coupled with an energetic public debate, to ensure we get the policy architecture right.
Ideally, while the issue can’t be ignored, any policy changes regarding post-retirement income for DC funds will involve an inclusive public debate and a gradual introduction to allow those affected to adjust their expectations and make long-term plans.
Australia has an enormous opportunity to build a world-class decumulation system that gives individuals security and flexibility in retirement. But it will not be easy. The media furore and public angst that preceded the Labor Government’s April 5 statement this year when changes to the tax laws governing superannuation were being mooted highlights the political difficulties. But the longer we delay this debate, the harder it will get – politically, socially and economically.
At the time of writing this article in 2013, Professor Deborah Ralston was Executive Director of the Australian Centre for Financial Studies (now Monash Centre for Financial Studies, which is part of Monash Business School). It publishes the Global Pension Index in conjunction with Mercer. Prior to her appointment on the panel for the Retirement Income Review, Dr Ralston was Chair of the SMSF Association.
Just keep the government out of it and the majority of us will be fine!
Australia has an enormous opportunity to build a world-class decumulation system that gives individuals security and flexibility in retirement, but it's different from the accumulation phase.
Life annuities is a product with theoretical appeal but it does not gather significant market acceptance. These behavioural reasons need to be addressed before substantial increases in sales occur.
Australia’s superannuation system has been judged to be the third best retirement system in the world. This is a good result, but Denmark's system shows how the judges think it can be improved.
With 160 programmes underway and billions of dollars spent on COVID-19 vaccines, investors are drawn to optimistic news. However, the company that has developed most new vaccines has a sober view.
Eventually, prices become so extreme they bear no relationship to reality, and a bubble forms. I believe we are there today, not for all stocks but for many in the technology space.
With signs that the economic recession will not be as deep as first feared, many companies will emerge strongly with robust business models. Here are the sectors with the best opportunities.
There is a similarity between the current health crisis and economic crises of the past. For COVID-19, record amounts of biotech funding from government agencies and private companies are looking for a vaccine. Likewise, central banks once struggled treating recessions but the 'vaccine' now is record amounts of financial stimulus to ensure liquidity. While the world awaits a COVID treatment, markets are purring along, at least until side effects hit.
The traditional 4% rule was designed to ensure retirees do not run out of money, but low interest rates and expensive equity markets question the sustainability of the level. What are the alternatives?
It’s not only products and business models that create wealth. Management teams make decisions on how to deploy capital and such actions drive vastly different outcomes over time.
Citi's clients tap into their own views to find investments that suit their portfolios, often working across global boundaries. It's a search for solutions in a world with no risk-free returns.
COVID-19 is delivering winners and losers, and buying a well-positioned company while shorting one with worse prospects can provide returns while managing the downside of an overall market correction.
There's a popular view that generations are 'at war', but is it really the case that generations are more divided than ever before? If so, what's causing it? Why now? And how can we move forward?
As uncertainty intensifies around geopolitics and markets, gold has rallied strongly in 2020. While most investors think of gold for price growth, does it deliver defensive features to a diversified portfolio?
With the Retirement Income Review now in Treasury's hands, will the 'fact base' establish whether large super funds do better than the share index? The public evidence is not impressive.
With historic falls in greenhouse gas emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic, we have a unique opportunity to construct a recovery that ensures a stronger economy while minimising carbon emissions.