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Skill Versus Luck

1-7 out of 7 results.

Five reasons fund managers don't talk about skill

Active funds cost more than passive because the investor is paying for the skill of the manager, so why are fund managers reticent to describe their skill rather than their outcomes. Here are five reasons.

Smart beta funds complement active without key person risk

It is common to see 'smart beta' as the core of a portfolio supported by high conviction active funds, or a core active manager blended with a complimentary smart beta strategy. It also removes key person risk.

Who dares loses: Buffett on luck, taxes and a challenge

Imagine it is 24 hours before you are born and you can set all the rules: any political system, any economic structure, any social edifice. One catch: you don't know which of the nine billion people on earth will be you.

Investment forecasts: foresight or folly?

It's easy to find eminent market experts with completely opposite views on the market at any moment. View the forecasts of investment gurus for what they are: guesstimates. Only you can decide what's right for you.

Unfortunately, all fund manager presentations are good

Part of the fund manager's job is to raise money from investors, and with years of practice, a few good stock stories and an educated guess on the future, it's not hard to present well. That's a problem for investors.

What game is your fund manager playing?

Investors do not ask enough questions of their fund managers before they commit money. It's worth at least knowing whether a long-term view is taken rather than the easier road of jumping in and out of markets.

Investment flows and the trifecta of desire

Investors rarely ask fund managers the right questions, forcing a confusion between selling and investing. The relationship should focus on the long run and eliminate the luck and noise of short-termism.

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Ray Dalio on 2025’s real story, Trump, and what’s next

The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.

Making sense of record high markets as the world catches fire

The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.

3 ways to fix Australia’s affordability crisis

Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.

Is there a better way to reform the CGT discount?

The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.

How cutting the CGT discount could help rebalance housing market

A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 648 with weekend update

This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.

  • 5 February 2026

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