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Sovereign Debt

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Will sovereign defaults spark the next GFC?

The fundamentals point toward bankruptcies of major sovereigns like the US and Japan in the next decade. The after effects could be catastrophic on all major asset classes. It’s time to discuss the makeup and costs of insurance.

Fear of missing out trumping fear of loss

Argentina's economic history shows there's no room for complacency, as the markets often lose their ability to judge risks in the wild search for performance.

Bond demand is dumb, dumber and dumbest

A sign that the strong credit cycle is ending is the funding of some emerging market governments that are more than likely to default, but demand is driven by desire for yield regardless of risk.

Greece: Scylla and Charybdis

Modern Greece faces an ancient dilemma: should it sail within reach of Scylla, the sea monster that lives in Brussels, to avoid Charybdis, the ‘sucking whirlpool’ that is the return of the drachma?

Hedge funds seizing ships – what next?

The story of a US hedge fund fighting to recoup its Argentinean bond investment has both stunned and amused all who have followed its progress over the last 12 years. Will the seizing of a naval vessel bring it to a close?

Australia’s default: shares versus bonds through the crisis

During the Australian government debt default, how did the performance of equities versus bonds compare? It was a time when investing in bonds was more common than equities.

Australia’s default: who do you rescue?

As it became obvious that Australia would need to default on its government debt in the 1930s, the question of whether to prioritise foreign or local debt was put to the people, with surprising results.

Australia’s default: A primer on government debt, default and inflation

Very few people realise that Australia once defaulted on its sovereign debt during the Great Depression. Learn how the split between local and foreign currency debt affects the policy options available to Governments.

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10 reasons wealthy homeowners shouldn't receive welfare

The RBA Governor says rising house prices are due to "the design of our taxation and social security systems". The OECD says "the prolonged boom in house prices has inflated the wealth of many pensioners without impacting their pension eligibility." What's your view?

House prices surge but falls are common and coming

We tend to forget that house prices often fall. Direct lending controls are more effective than rate rises because macroprudential limits affect the volume of money for housing leaving business rates untouched.

Survey responses on pension eligibility for wealthy homeowners

The survey drew a fantastic 2,000 responses with over 1,000 comments and polar opposite views on what is good policy. Do most people believe the home should be in the age pension asset test, and what do they say?

100 Aussies: five charts on who earns, pays and owns

Any policy decision needs to recognise who is affected by a change. It pays to check the data on who pays taxes, who owns assets and who earns the income to ensure an equitable and efficient outcome.

Three good comments from the pension asset test article

With articles on the pensions assets test read about 40,000 times, 3,500 survey responses and thousands of comments, there was a lot of great reader participation. A few comments added extra insights.

The sorry saga of housing affordability and ownership

It is hard to think of any area of widespread public concern where the same policies have been pursued for so long, in the face of such incontrovertible evidence that they have failed to achieve their objectives.

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