Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Register

13 November 2026

Home / White Papers 2024

ViewPoint: Wash, Rinse, Repeat

  •   VanEck
  •   18 January 2024
  •      
  •   

In summary:

  • 2023 was simple (or not so simple), stay invested but be selective.
  • Fixed income investors eked out a positive as long-end of the curves slumped. Rate gyrations and inflation are still keeping investors up at night.
  • Q4 was all the rage and double digit returns for most risk-on asset classes in 2023 with US equities returning positive 26%. At the bottom of the equity complex was China A shares down circa 12%.
  • We continue to emphasise that in 2024 investors should be selective. Although markets may be pricing rate cuts we think it is all too premature.
  • So where is the future risk? We continue to maintain that the risk is in leverage, insufficient cash flow/assets relative to liabilities in the likes of commercial real estate and other private assets. Wholesale investors will likely bear the brunt of this.
  • EPS forecasts barely factor a recession, earnings yields below Treasury Bonds. Financial conditions are still loose.
  • Where art thou recession? The clouds of gloom have not yet arrived but could towards the back end of 2024.
  • A reasonable outcome may be a mild recession but the macro resilience will continue to challenge fixed income investors and leveraged assets.
  • RBA unlikely to cut rates and more likely to raise. Market overestimating the speed of cuts. Australian consumers to tighten the purses.
  • What do we like in 2024?
  • Exogenous risks remain elevated and even more pronounced. Portfolio hedging is vital. Emerging markets, Gold and gold miners (Gold to break all-time-high of US$2,135), quality and quality international small companies, avoid concentrated bets.
  • Beaten up complexes such as REITs and small caps may present opportunities but importantly, be selective.

Download the full paper

  •   18 January 2024
  •      
  •   

 

Leave a Comment:
Firstlinks is sponsored by:
banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Division 296: the initial moves to make before the windows close

What if the best superannuation strategy isn't about earning more, but acting before your options disappear? Several overlooked planning windows are narrowing, with consequences that can last for decades.

The retirement scorecard: how many of these questions can you answer?

From the maths of retirement, estimating spending and picking the right asset allocation to survive a poor decade, here are the questions every retiree – current or future – should be able to answer for themselves.

Testamentary trusts: Treasury has picked the wrong reading

A decades-old estate planning tool has survived one tax crackdown only to be caught by another. The surprise isn't who the reform is targeting, but who could end up paying the price for drafting choices made years ago.

Superannuation’s structural failings

Politicians are fighting over access to super, but they may be arguing about the wrong thing. The system’s three fundamental flaws have been hiding in plain sight for decades, costing Australians far more than they realise.

Avoid unnecessary CGT with this estate planning clause

A simple estate plan can create a ticking time bomb. One overlooked clause can pit spouses against children, delay inheritances, and potentially leave a family facing an unexpected tax bill worth hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Higher yields are creating opportunities in global bonds

Bond markets are adjusting to a new reality, but not in the ways investors expect. With markets repricing and capital competing for attention, investors may need to rethink where resilience and opportunity lie. 

Latest Updates

Retirement

The retirement account that Australia should have

Our retirement system asks one account to do two very different jobs. A dedicated "rainy day" account separating income from emergency savings could deliver better outcomes and greater peace of mind for retirees.

Investing

What the US midterm results mean for investors

Democrats have regained control of Congress, changing the equation in Washington. Whether that proves positive for investors will depend less on the result itself and more on what happens next for growth and markets.

Taxation

Should the capital gains tax reward risk?

A reader query on the recent CGT reforms has revealed a bigger issue. One overlooked feature of the old system may have done more than compensate for inflation. As we move to indexation, are we forgetting to reward risk?

Investment strategies

Bonds: The income and diversification trade-off

Rising yields have made bonds attractive again, but that does not mean they will behave as expected. As inflation, fiscal pressures and geopolitical risks reshape markets, the role of bonds may be more complicated than it appears.

Investment strategies

Why high-dividend investing deserves another look

Income investors have endured several lean years, but signs of a recovery are emerging. As opportunities improve, investors face an important choice between chasing headline yields and building a reliable source of income.

Investment strategies

Why 'overvalued' has been such an expensive word

Investors love simple rules, especially when markets appear stretched. Yet some of the strongest returns have arrived when the outlook seemed least attractive. This leaves an important question that history struggles to answer.

Investment strategies

AI – A good kind of bubble or just a bubble?

Investor obsession with AI is attracting unprecedented amounts of capital and confidence. But beneath the excitement lies uncertainties about returns, funding and risks that enthusiasts may not be paying enough attention to.

Sponsors

Alliances

  • ASA-Logo-RGB-ActiveGreen-web.png

Site Map

About Firstlinks

© 2026 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.