Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Register

16 October 2026

Home / White Papers 2022

The 2022-23 Federal Budget in brief

Summary

The new budget’s announcements are broadly in line with media reporting over recent days and mostly reflect a number of election commitments. A deficit of $37bn is forecast for 2022/23 (down from an expected $80bn as recently as April), widening slightly over the out years as temporary revenue gains fade. Cumulatively, the deficit is $43bn smaller over the next 4 years, resulting in a slightly lower debt burden over the forward estimates as compared to the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook (PEFO).

Key policy changes were largely confined to the Government’s election promises including expanded childcare subsidies ($4.7b), aged care reforms ($2.5b), university and vocational education places ($1.4b) and lowering prescription costs ($0.8b). There were also new announcements on parental leave ($0.5b) and affordable housing ($0.4b). The Budget also includes $8.1b over 10 years for infrastructure and additional investments in the NBN, energy transmission, and social housing. The impact of higher indexation for welfare and growing NDIS costs are also noted, in addition to a rise in debt servicing costs.

While this budget does little to address medium-term structural budget issues, it does lay the groundwork for the government to seek to address these challenges more actively in the future. The budget highlights that the better-than-expected outcomes in both 2022/23 and 2023/24 resulted in large part from higher commodity prices and large employment and wage gains. These impacts are expected to wane and, in the medium-term, slower assumed trend growth and rising NDIS and debt servicing costs see the budget projected to remain in deficit well beyond 2030.

Importantly, however, in the context of high inflation our estimates suggest the fiscal impact on growth is neutral over the next two years. In the absence of a significant structural tightening, monetary policy will likely remain the key tool in moderating demand and inflationary pressure in the near term, pointing to some upside risk on our rates profile.

Download the full paper

  •   27 October 2022
  •      
  •   

 

Leave a Comment:
Firstlinks is sponsored by:
banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

It’s time for LICs to die

A high-profile dividend cut and a prominent fund manager’s apology have reignited a long-running debate. If investors can access similar exposures more cheaply and efficiently elsewhere, what exactly is keeping LICs alive?

Testamentary trusts survived the trust tax. The drafting battle has just begun.

The fight over testamentary trusts looked settled. Then the draft legislation arrived. Hidden in a technical detail is a question that could force many families to rethink wills they thought were already future-proof.

Is it time to bail on Australian stocks?

For generations, Australian investors have backed banks, miners and dividends. But has that loyalty come at a cost? A look at the numbers raises an uncomfortable question about where future returns will come from.

The new capital gains tax trap for your portfolio

Investors have long accepted one portfolio rule without much question. A major tax shift could change that calculation entirely, forcing difficult trade-offs between risk, discipline and an overlooked cost lurking beneath.

How the typical Australian Family could save $844,350 in taxes

The value of a testamentary trust is not determined by wealth alone. Depending on circumstances, it can reduce the tax burden on inherited income, create efficiencies and help build intergenerational wealth.

The housing slide could become a crash

House prices are sliding across Australia, yet the most dangerous ingredient for a housing crash is still missing. If job losses surge amid growing economic risks, today's correction could become a historic property downturn.

Latest Updates

Retirement

The retirement scorecard: how many of these questions can you answer?

From the maths of retirement, estimating spending and picking the right asset allocation to survive a poor decade, here are the questions every retiree – current or future – should be able to answer for themselves.

2026 is not 1999

The US market looks eerily similar to the dot-com era with soaring AI spending and tech giants dominating returns. But one difference separates today’s boom from the dot-com bubble and it could determine what happens next.

Planning

Taxing time for trusts

Trusts are facing a shake-up, but an overhaul may not be necessary. Families can explore restructuring strategies that preserve succession and the asset protection benefits that have made these structures valuable.

Economy

Why the US economy is stronger than you might think

War, inflation and higher rates were expected to derail America. But has the market got it wrong? Three forces are driving the economy beyond expectations, revealing implications for stock prices and portfolio positioning.

Gold

How much trust is in your portfolio?

Everyone talks about diversifying assets. Far fewer think about diversifying trust. As inflation, debt and market assumptions collide, the question is whether portfolios need greater protection from unexpected outcomes.

Retirement

Retirement in reality - 7 months in

Seven months into retirement, I'm still uncovering surprises. This month was spent reflecting on the slow pace of health change, the myth of neatly scheduled part-time work and the unexpected persistence of retirement guilt.

The new geography of technology leadership

The next chapter of technology may not belong to the companies or business models many expect. As the landscape shifts, some opportunities are emerging in places that remain surprisingly overlooked by global markets.

Sponsors

Alliances

  • ASA-Logo-RGB-ActiveGreen-web.png

Site Map

About Firstlinks

© 2026 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.