Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 274

Is 'shaken and stirred' coming? The risky business of bonds

Bonds have been an exceptionally rewarding asset class for nearly four decades. They have also proven to be a reliable diversification tool, particularly when deployed with stocks in a so-called '60/40' portfolio. But expecting a repeat performance in the decades to come reminds us of the late financial historian Peter L. Bernstein’s comment that: “There is a difference between an optimist and a believer in the tooth fairy.

As can be seen in the chart below, this extraordinary period of performance has been unusual in the context of longer-term history. Bonds have benefitted from a favourable tailwind that stretches back to the early 1980s. Recently, the tailwind has been reinforced by the unprecedented actions of central banks following the GFC. To avoid a deflationary debt spiral, the Federal Reserve and other major central banks intentionally drove bond yields to historic lows and even into negative territory in some instances, sending bond prices to new highs.

government bonds

government bonds

Prospective returns for many bonds now appear limited

In addition to nosebleed prices and rock-bottom yields, the risks embedded in the bond market would appear to be well above average when we observe cuts in taxes and a ramp up in fiscal spending at a time when government debt is already at or near all-time highs. Governments and central banks are desperate to inflate away these debt burdens. Sustained negative real yields imply sustained negative real returns to holders of these nominal assets.

We also ask ourselves: “Who is the marginal buyer of bonds at these yields if central banks are stepping back?” Historically it might have been large governments recycling their enormous current account surpluses. If a country exports more than it imports, it needs to do something with the difference, and exporter countries have often been major buyers of importers’ bonds. But the reduction of international trade imbalances is now top of the political agenda.

In addition to political will, there are forces at work that should lead to a more natural reduction of the global gross trade surplus. Examples include the seismic shifts in China, where supply-side reforms have the potential to substantially boost imports, and in the US, where the shale oil and gas revolution is beginning to impact the export picture.

The bond sell-off that spooked investors in February this year was driven by greater-than-expected wage growth in the US. It could be a sign of more volatility to come. Negative returns are likely if interest rates continue to rise as quantitative easing begins to unwind. When yields are low, bond prices become extra sensitive to any change in yield, adding a layer of risk.

Rise in correlation reduces diversification benefits

Worse, there are signs that stocks and bonds are now moving together, negating the diversification benefit bonds are expected to provide. Taking a longer-term view of history, the following chart shows that the strong anti-correlation between US stocks and bonds (the negative numbers) since the late 1990s is quite unusual.  History suggests that investors should expect bonds and stocks to be more correlated in the future with the possibility of high correlations in a rising interest rate environment. It also suggests that investors might question the traditional diversification role played by long-dated government bonds in a balanced portfolio.

government bonds

Yields for long-term government bonds can be broken into a few components: inflation expectations, the expected path of real interest rates and the term premium. This latter component can be thought of as the compensation offered to investors for taking on a long-dated risk. It should always be positive, but today, term premiums in most developed markets are near zero, and some, astonishingly, are negative. A negative term premium implies that investors are paying for the privilege of taking on term risk. This is highly unusual, if not nonsensical. Yields can be low for good reasons, but it’s hard to imagine a good reason for the term premium to be negative. This looks like a real inefficiency — a mispricing.

One culprit is quantitative easing (QE), the process where central banks buy bonds and other assets using newly-printed money. Large price-insensitive buyers of government bonds are bound to create price distortions. In this environment it makes sense for governments and companies to borrow long term, and this is what we have seen. Ireland and Austria have issued bonds that mature in 100 years.

Today's prices force a rethink

One definition of risk is that “more things can happen than will happen”, and purchasers of these bonds have 100 years’ worth of potential surprises to look forward to. For taking on this enormously long-dated risk, investors receive a paltry 2% per annum. Relying solely on long-term government bonds to manage risk at today’s prices strikes us as imprudent at best.

 

Graeme Forster is Portfolio Manager at Orbis Investments, a sponsor of Cuffelinks. Commentary is adapted from Orbis quarterly reports and reflects recent views. The information provided in this article in general in nature and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs.

For more articles and papers from Orbis, please click here.

RELATED ARTICLES

Busting the bond myth

A journey through the life of a fixed rate bond

Why have bond fund distributions been shrinking?

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Which generation had it toughest?

Each generation believes its economic challenges were uniquely tough - but what does the data say? A closer look reveals a more nuanced, complex story behind the generational hardship debate. 

Maybe it’s time to consider taxing the family home

Australia could unlock smarter investment and greater equity by reforming housing tax concessions. Rethinking exemptions on the family home could benefit most Australians, especially renters and owners of modest homes.

The best way to get rich and retire early

This goes through the different options including shares, property and business ownership and declares a winner, as well as outlining the mindset needed to earn enough to never have to work again.

A perfect storm for housing affordability in Australia

Everyone has a theory as to why housing in Australia is so expensive. There are a lot of different factors at play, from skewed migration patterns to banking trends and housing's status as a national obsession.

Supercharging the ‘4% rule’ to ensure a richer retirement

The creator of the 4% rule for retirement withdrawals, Bill Bengen, has written a new book outlining fresh strategies to outlive your money, including holding fewer stocks in early retirement before increasing allocations.

Simple maths says the AI investment boom ends badly

This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.

Latest Updates

Weekly Editorial

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 628

Australian investors have been pouring money into US stocks this year, just as they start to underperform the rest of the world. Is this a sign of things to come? This looks at 50 years of data to see what happens next.

  • 11 September 2025
Exchange traded products

Are LICs licked?

LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.

Retirement

We need a better scheme to help superannuation victims

The Compensation Scheme of Last Resort fails families hit by First Guardian and Shield losses, as well as advisers who are being wrongly blamed for the saga. It’s time for a fair, faster, universal super levy solution.

Investment strategies

5 charts every retiree must see…

Retirement can be daunting for Australians facing financial uncertainty. Understand your goals, longevity challenges, inflation impacts, market risks, and components of retirement income with these crucial charts.

Economy

How bread vs rice moulded history

Does a country's staple crop decide elements of its destiny? The second order effects of being a wheat or rice growing country could explain big differences in culture, societal norms and economic development.

Investment strategies

Small caps are catching fire - for good reason

Small caps just crashed the party like John McClane did in the movie, Die Hard - August delivered explosive gains. With valuations at historic lows, long-term investors could be set for a sequel worth watching.

Defensive growth for an age of deglobalisation, debt and disorder

Today’s new world order appears likely to lead to a lower return, higher risk investment environment. But this asset class looks especially well placed to survive, thrive, and deliver attractive returns to investors.

Economy

Will we choose a four-day working week?

The allure of a four-day week reflects a yearning for more balance in our lives. Yet the reliability of studies touting a lift in productivity is questionable and society may not be ready for such a shift anyway.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.