Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 403

Mind the bond/equity rebalancing gap

At the end of the first quarter of 2021, the MSCI World equity index had returned 55% (total return in USD) over 12 months, while the return of the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate (bond) index was just 4.7%, giving equities a 48% outperformance (see Exhibit 1).

Rebalancing required

The quarter-on-quarter gap between equity and bond returns through the end of March 2021 was 9.2% compared to 12.4% in the previous quarter. The most significant change in the pattern of returns is that the equity outperformance over the last year came primarily in 2020, while the underperformance of bonds was greatest in the first quarter of 2021.

This divergence will require many institutional investors to rebalance their portfolios to attain their preferred allocation. This will be particularly true for insurance companies and pension funds that typically follow quite closely to a 50-50 split between bonds and equities in their allocations.

In the US, this split has rarely varied by more than a few percentage points and the allocation to corporate bonds and US Treasuries has been similarly stable (see Exhibit 2).

Given that equities generally outperform bonds over time, achieving this target allocation (instead of maximising total returns) inevitably requires redemptions from equities and purchases of bonds.

Indeed, since the GFC, institutional investors have bought bonds every year, but they bought equities only twice and then only in small amounts (see Exhibit 3).

No meaningful impact

What might we expect in terms of fund flows in the upcoming quarter as US insurance companies and pensions align their allocations with the allocations they had at the end of 2020?

Assuming funds flows in the first quarter of 2021 were the same as in the last quarter of 2020, and applying the relevant index returns to the existing asset base, in the absence of rebalancing, we estimate allocations to:

  • equities would be 0.4% above target
  • corporate bonds would be 0.3% below target
  • Treasuries would actually be in line (the decline in the value of the Treasury portfolio due to rising rates has largely been offset by new bond purchases).

To restore the allocations, US institutional investors would need to buy about USD11 billion in Treasuries, USD58 billion in corporate bonds and redeem USD69 billion in equities.

These figures are only a percentage of typical purchases and redemptions, so we do not expect a meaningful impact on the market from institutional investor portfolio rebalancing this quarter.

 

Daniel Morris is Chief Market Strategist at BNP Paribas Asset ManagementThis article was first published on 6 April 2021 on Investors’ Corner.

This information is issued by BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT Australia Limited ABN 78 008 576 449, AFSL 223418. The information published does not constitute financial product advice, an offer to issue or recommendation to acquire any financial product. You will need to seek your own advice for any topic covered in the article. Investing in specialised sectors is likely to be subject to a higher-than-average volatility due to a high degree of concentration, greater uncertainty because less information is available, there is less liquidity or due to greater sensitivity to changes in market conditions (social, political and economic conditions).

 


 

Leave a Comment:

RELATED ARTICLES

Why investors will continue to pay up for the US market and Mag 7

10 key investment themes for 2022

10 key themes for 2021

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

The case for the $3 million super tax

The Government's proposed tax has copped a lot of flack though I think it's a reasonable approach to improve the long-term sustainability of superannuation and the retirement income system. Here’s why.

7 examples of how the new super tax will be calculated

You've no doubt heard about Division 296. These case studies show what people at various levels above the $3 million threshold might need to pay the ATO, with examples ranging from under $500 to more than $35,000.

The revolt against Baby Boomer wealth

The $3m super tax could be put down to the Government needing money and the wealthy being easy targets. It’s deeper than that though and this looks at the factors behind the policy and why more taxes on the wealthy are coming.

Meg on SMSFs: Withdrawing assets ahead of the $3m super tax

The super tax has caused an almighty scuffle, but for SMSFs impacted by the proposed tax, a big question remains: what should they do now? Here are ideas for those wanting to withdraw money from their SMSF.

The super tax and the defined benefits scandal

Australia's superannuation inequities date back to poor decisions made by Parliament two decades ago. If super for the wealthy needs resetting, so too does the defined benefits schemes for our public servants.

Are franking credits hurting Australia’s economy?

Business investment and per capita GDP have languished over the past decade and the Labor Government is conducting inquiries to find out why. Franking credits should be part of the debate about our stalling economy.

Latest Updates

Superannuation

Here's what should replace the $3 million super tax

With Div. 296 looming, is there a smarter way to tax superannuation? This proposes a fairer, income-linked alternative that respects compounding, ensures predictability, and avoids taxing unrealised capital gains. 

Superannuation

Less than 1% of wealthy families will struggle to pay super tax: study

An ANU study has found that families with at least one super balance over $3 million have average wealth exceeding $19 million - suggesting most are well placed to absorb taxes on unrealised capital gains.   

Superannuation

Are SMSFs getting too much of a free ride?

SMSFs have managed to match, or even outperform, larger super funds despite adopting more conservative investment strategies. This looks at how they've done it - and the potential policy implications.  

Property

A developer's take on Australia's housing issues

Stockland’s development chief discusses supply constraints, government initiatives and the impact of Japanese-owned homebuilders on the industry. He also talks of green shoots in a troubled property market.

Economy

Lessons from 100 years of growing US debt

As the US debt ceiling looms, the usual warnings about a potential crash in bond and equity markets have started to appear. Investors can take confidence from history but should keep an eye on two main indicators.

Investment strategies

Investors might be paying too much for familiarity

US mega-cap tech stocks have dominated recent returns - but is familiarity distorting judgement? Like the Monty Hall problem, investing success often comes from switching when it feels hardest to do so.

Latest from Morningstar

A winning investment strategy sitting right under your nose

How does a strategy built around systematically buying-and-holding a basket of the market's biggest losers perform? It turns out pretty well, so why don't more investors do it?

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.