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Thursday, 2 April 2020
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For investors able to react quickly when stressed selling hits hybrids, excellent margins are available on quality names. The GFC taught experienced investors lessons that are now repeating.
The margins (or spreads) on so-called AT1 bank hybrids have reduced significantly since the franking doubt was removed in the election, and investors should ask whether they are now rewarded for the risks.
The Coalition victory in the Federal election removed many policies which were overhanging the property market, and a relaxation of bank lending conditions is underpinning the signs of recovery.
Amid the many strategies proposed to overcome Labor's franking policy if adopted, often overlooked is building a portfolio of the right types of bonds and hybrids as an alternative source of income.
Changes to banking regulations have led to higher interest rates on bank loans for SMEs and personal loans, pushing borrowers towards the rapidly growing new segment of non-bank lending for faster and better service.
Hybrids are no more ridiculous than shares for retail investors, especially bank and insurance company issues. The increase in common equity in banks has improved the quality, but investors must be paid for the risk.
Australia is in a relatively good position to borrow $200 billion, with the RBA using printed money to buy bonds in the market. The long-term consequences are better than the alternative.
Howard Marks is the largest investor in the world in distressed securities. What does he think after checking the virus positives and negatives, and how much has he changed his mind in only a few days?
Bear markets caused by recession fears follow a pattern, but we have never seen anything like coronavirus. If financial stimulus and medicine prove ineffective, all bets are off.
The turning point in this crisis will be when the number of new COVID-19 cases starts to decrease. Until then, can we mitigate the damage to businesses and the economy so that we can snap back?
Over the long term, the technology sector has a vital role to make the essential transition to a more sustainable global economy and a cleaner planet. We highlight a few names with strong prospects.