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2 April 2026
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In our “Deep Water Waves” publication, we identified several powerful, connected and long-duration factors that will have a significant impact on investment returns over the next decades. One of these is the Demographic Wave. Its impact is a distinct aging of the populations of some countries and high fertility rates and young populations in others. The countries that have driven global economic growth over the last generation are aging fast, creating productivity and growth challenges.
This paper is a derivative of “The Demographic Wave” and identifies the economic, political and investment implications for countries with lower fertility and growing life expectancy. The research that underpins this paper uses the analysis of the structural positioning of 110 countries (covered by our proprietary Country Risk Framework) to outline potential policy direction and the signposts for investors to watch for. Growing demand for credit and a more constrained access to financing will play defining roles, along with the impact of geoeconomics and climate change in the next 20 years.
Download the full paper
One in five Australians die before retirement and most have not set up their super properly so their loved ones can benefit from all their hard work and savings.
An ageing Australia is shifting the superannuation system’s focus from accumulation to the lifecycle of retirement. While these pressures have been anticipated for decades, they are now converging at scale and driving widespread industry change.
The 20 years after Peter Costello left Treasury have been deemed wasted...by Peter Costello. The missed opportunities for Australia began long before.
An ‘affordability’ scheme making the county more vulnerable to economic shocks and contributing to the deteriorating financial situation of everyday Australians.
With the upcoming budget increasingly likely to include bold proposals to alter the tax code I’ve outlined three incremental steps with fewer unintended consequences.
Retirement planning is more than just saving enough money. Long-term care needs, housing choices, and social networks are just as critical for a happy and enjoyable life.
Stay on top of the latest changes to superannuation rates and thresholds for 2026, including increases to transfer balance cap, concessional contributions cap, and non-concessional contributions cap.
In a shift away from solely targeting low inflation, central banks are considering raising inflation targets to combat economic challenges, but face potential drawbacks and conflicts in policy implementation.
The perceived underperformance of LICs compared to ETFs is due to existing comparison data excluding crucial information, highlighting the need for proper assessment and transparent reporting.
New research shows smarter portfolio construction—not new factors—is the real edge in the hunt for alpha. However, finding it requires a fundamentally different mindset.
Many 'diversified' portfolios are increasingly driven by the same narrow set of forces. As concentration builds beneath the surface, understanding how portfolios behave - not just how they’re constructed - is critical for investors.
Current market volatility is likened to Lenin's quote on rapid change. Rising oil prices and interest rates impact bond and corporate yields, with a potential economic downturn ahead. Maintaining interest rate duration is advised.
Investors often focus on front-of-mind risks, reacting to each headline event without considering long-term impacts. Cass Sunstein and Timur Kuran define this as an "availability cascade," affecting financial decision-making.