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20 November 2025

Home / White Papers 2024

Deep waves Longevity: the undertow to the demographic wave

In our “Deep Water Waves” publication, we identified several powerful, connected and long-duration factors that will have a significant impact on investment returns over the next decades. One of these is the Demographic Wave. Its impact is a distinct aging of the populations of some countries and high fertility rates and young populations in others. The countries that have driven global economic growth over the last generation are aging fast, creating productivity and growth challenges.

This paper is a derivative of “The Demographic Wave” and identifies the economic, political and investment implications for countries with lower fertility and growing life expectancy. The research that underpins this paper uses the analysis of the structural positioning of 110 countries (covered by our proprietary Country Risk Framework) to outline potential policy direction and the signposts for investors to watch for. Growing demand for credit and a more constrained access to financing will play defining roles, along with the impact of geoeconomics and climate change in the next 20 years.

Download the full paper

 

  •   29 August 2024
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