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18 June 2026
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In our “Deep Water Waves” publication, we identified several powerful, connected and long-duration factors that will have a significant impact on investment returns over the next decades. One of these is the Demographic Wave. Its impact is a distinct aging of the populations of some countries and high fertility rates and young populations in others. The countries that have driven global economic growth over the last generation are aging fast, creating productivity and growth challenges.
This paper is a derivative of “The Demographic Wave” and identifies the economic, political and investment implications for countries with lower fertility and growing life expectancy. The research that underpins this paper uses the analysis of the structural positioning of 110 countries (covered by our proprietary Country Risk Framework) to outline potential policy direction and the signposts for investors to watch for. Growing demand for credit and a more constrained access to financing will play defining roles, along with the impact of geoeconomics and climate change in the next 20 years.
Download the full paper
Marketed as a fix for inequality and housing affordability, the latest budget instead delivers a tangle of tax changes that leave everyday Australians worse off.
Australia may not levy formal death duties, but a growing web of tax measures is quietly shaping what wealth passes between generations. Now, the 2026 budget adds another layer.
The debate over the budget is increasingly shaped by frustration and perceptions of unfairness, rather than clear-eyed assessment of policy outcomes.
Inflation doesn’t just raise today’s bills - it quietly increases the amount needed to retire, while simultaneously making it harder to save. Three steps to take before June 30th to improve retirement outcomes.
Inheritance tax implications in Australia may surprise some, as poor estate planning without proper wills or trusts can lead to costly tax bills and delays for beneficiaries.
A return to indexation of capital gains would be a fairer way to compensate households for the effects of inflation than the current discount. Importantly, it opens the door to future, broader reforms to stop the taxation of inflation.
Beneath the dominance of the ASX's largest stocks, much of the market has been left behind. High-quality companies are now trading at levels rarely seen, offering opportunities for investors willing to look deeper.
Something unusual is happening in markets. The winners are pulling further ahead at an extraordinary pace. As return dispersion hits extreme levels, volatility is rising and the investing landscape is becoming harder to navigate.
Extreme wealth concentration is no longer just a side effect of growth. As inequality deepens, its consequences are shifting from a social concern to a broader threat to economic stability and democratic resilience.
AI exuberance is colliding with economic reality. Cracks are emerging as spending surges, ROI remains uncertain and enterprise behaviour shifts. The next phase may look less like an expansion and more like a reckoning.
The 2026 budget has reignited Australia’s tax reform debate, but more work remains. Beneath the surface lies a harder question: what structural reforms are needed to make the country's tax system fit for the future?
The Budget's negative gearing changes defer deductions rather than deny them, yet a worked example shows quarantining can halve the tax benefit's present value for buyers of established dwellings.
In just four years, Australia's private capital landscape has transformed. We are seeing changes across who deploys capital, how deals are structured and why new platforms and investor pathways are rapidly emerging.