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5 March 2026
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Grattan on property and politics, Cuffe on application chaos, Joye on hybrid selloff, Stammer on cycles, LIC dividends and franking, earnings value.
Economic growth and interest rates affect housing prices, but political decisions around zoning, migration, and taxes are also strong influences. Overall, the current climate suggests a much slower growth in house prices.
Long-term earnings matter the most to stock prices over the long run. Trying to time short-term fluctuations is folly, but we can pick the times when movements are disharmonious with earnings.
Factors relating to technical adjustments, timing of bank reporting and offshore influences have created wider spreads on bonds and hybrids which should mean revert in time.
Since the 1950s, predictions on the death of economic cycles have come and gone, and each time they have been wrong. But since no two cycles are the same, we ought to look for what’s different this time.
LICs can sustain their dividends not only from current year profits, but from reserves built up in prior years. This report looks at reserve levels as a sign of consistency of future dividends.
Labor's proposed franking credit policy has already faced a number of unintended consequences, and the inequitable tax treatment of Listed Investment Companies much also be addressed.
The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.
Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.
The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.
A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.
This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.
Most commentary on gold's recent record highs focus on it being the product of fear or speculative momentum. That's ignoring the deeper structural drivers at play.