Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 247

How investment property returns depend on politics

Australian housing has been a good investment with prices more than doubling in real terms over the past 20 years. Since 2012, house prices have risen 50% in Melbourne and 70% in Sydney. Our recent report, Housing affordability: re-imagining the Australian dream, investigated the trends.

Prices went up the most in inner cities. People paid a premium for dwellings with good access to areas near the CBD where employment has grown fastest. And lower-priced dwellings increased in value more than higher-priced dwellings. Investors preferred lower-price property, below land tax thresholds. Shifts in migration rules skewed population growth towards younger households that typically buy cheaper housing.

The perfect storm created the price boom

Overall, prices went up because of a perfect storm of rising incomes, falling interest rates, rapid migration, tax and welfare settings that fed demand, and planning rules that restricted supply. And as with any asset, there’s always the possibility that some of the current price is purely stemming from irrational exuberance.

The key question for investors is whether the good times will roll on for housing. Investors in residential housing are counting on continued strong capital growth. Most of them are negatively geared, and that only makes sense if housing values continue to soar.

Future prices depend on many factors. Recent history can tell us a lot about what matters.

Many of the drivers of rapid housing price growth may be slowing. Household incomes rose about 30% in the 10 years to 2013. Since then, real incomes have barely moved, as Australia ran into the headwinds that have afflicted many other developed countries. Housing prices also rose because interest rates fell, but nominal and real official interest rates are now at around their lowest in Australian history. If interest rates rise, one would expect housing prices to fall.

Housing prices also rose because tax and welfare settings boosted demand. In 1999, the Commonwealth switched to taxing half of nominal capital gains rather than all of the real capital gains. Given actual capital gains and inflation rates, this increased the after-tax returns on investments like housing with higher capital returns but lower annual income returns. The capital gains on homes have never been taxed. And there are big welfare advantages to home ownership in retirement, because the means test for the age pension ignores all but the first $200,000 of the value of a home.

Migration and population growth driving prices

These tax and welfare settings may not last. Australian government budgets are challenged. Not only is the population ageing, but a declining proportion of those over 65 is paying tax. Inevitably, policy makers are starting to focus on the tax and welfare settings that provide substantially greater benefits to older Australians. The ALP has already committed to changing capital gains tax and negative gearing rules. Changing the age pension means test to include more of the value of the home might be unpopular, but it is about the only policy change that boasts a unity ticket between think tanks from the right, left, and centre. If any of these policy changes are implemented, they are likely to weigh adversely on housing prices.

Demand for housing also rose when Australia’s net migration rose substantially from about 2006. Population growth averaged 210,000 per year from 1990 to 2004, but 360,000 per year from 2005 to 2016. After dipping a little in 2014-15, net migration is now at record levels in Sydney and Melbourne. Governments can slow migration. It’s not a first-best policy option, but the discussion is becoming louder. If governments do tap the brakes on migration, then house price growth is likely to be lower.

Population growth wouldn’t have affected prices so much if supply of new housing had kept up. But while population growth jumped from about 2005, dwelling construction didn’t rise much until 2013. Reserve Bank analysis suggests that much of the price rises reflected the ‘zoning effect’ – a premium paid for planning permission to build a dwelling on the land. Their work shows that the zoning effect explains around 40% of the price of a typical detached house in Sydney or Melbourne. In 2000, before demand for housing took off, the effect was only 20% of the value of a house in Sydney, and negligible in Melbourne in Brisbane.

The zoning effect reflects political reluctance to permit enough subdivisions relative to demand. Many voters support increased density, but only in the suburb next to theirs.

These patterns are already changing, with substantially more apartments completed in 2015-2018. Sydney allowed far more 5- to 9-storey developments along major transport corridors; Melbourne allowed more high-rise in the centre of the city, and Brisbane allowed more 10- to 20-storey buildings on the edge of the CBD. Although the strategies varied, in each city these materially added to supply. As a proportion of the population, the change was greatest in Brisbane, and apartment prices there have moderated over the past 18 months.

A key issue for future prices is whether state governments and local councils continue to permit increased levels of medium- and high-density development in our major cities. The issue is intensely political. A backlash is brewing in Sydney. Local residents usually oppose increased density because of the additional pressure it tends to impose on local resources from parks to parking. But the penny is starting to drop that the failure to permit more housing means that ‘my children can’t afford to buy a house’.

The political trends that will influence housing price trends

Housing affordability has become the second most important issue on voters’ minds (after health). While other solutions (such as regional development and first-home buyer concessions) are politically popular, they won’t in fact fix the problems. If governments want to allay voter worries about affordability, they will have to permit more building. The political paradox is that improving affordability for new home-ownership implies less capital growth for investors and homeowners.

The political pressures will be more intense because it is also increasingly obvious that housing is one of the biggest causes of the widening wealth gap between high- and low-income households, and between older and younger households. Age-based voting emerged as a force in the last United Kingdom election, and there are signs that political parties are positioning themselves in Australia to respond to the increasingly different social attitudes and economic interests of older and younger generations.

And our major cities are increasingly geographically divided between: the centre and middle, with higher incomes, levels of education, and female workforce participation; and outer suburbs with fewer advantages. This is a poor economic outcome – because employers ultimately have a smaller potential workforce than otherwise, and a bad social outcome – as rich and poor live increasingly segregated lives.

To some extent, the long-run returns to housing investment depend on macro-economic conditions, particularly incomes and interest rates. As such, they aren’t so different from equity investments. But housing investments also depend a lot on policy decisions around migration, tax, and planning that will particularly affect the housing market. Housing depends, more than most investments, on the politics.

 

John Daley is CEO, Brendan Coates is a Fellow, and Trent Wiltshire is an Associate at Grattan Institute.

8 Comments
Michael Perroux
April 13, 2018

Soon there will be tears.

Frank
April 05, 2018

The problem with just building more housing is that infrastructure can’t cope. I live in an established inner suburb which is being overdeveloped with thousands of units where old federation houses used to be. The result is continual gridlock on streets and surrounding areas.

Building more is reducing the amenity of existing owners and also assuming that new buyers of housing want to live in concrete termite mounds - most don’t but can’t afford anything else.

The only solution is a Sydney Is Full sign and a policy of no new development. All migrants including students and temporary workers to not be allowed to work or live in Sydney which will turbo boost regional development where there is ample space.

That we live in crammed cities in the emptiest country on Earth is beyond absurd.

Michael
April 05, 2018

Grattan has identified a key social issue

"our major cities are increasingly geographically divided between: the centre and middle, with higher incomes, levels of education, and female workforce participation; and outer suburbs with fewer advantages"

However a lack of intellectual rigor in considering and assessing solutions is manifest. Grattan seem wedded to higher tax solutions. Surely improved infrastructure (not just transport, but schools, hospitals, universities, museums and the wider range of community institutions and facilities), and policies which encourage employers (including government which is the largest employer in Australia) to locate in non-central areas and hubs will be more effective.

Australia seemed capable of this in the post war period when there was a large migrant intake and the great "migration" to the outer suburbs enabled by car ownership occurred. Monash University (early sixties) and Tullamarine airport (1970 and well outside the developed suburban area) demonstrate how the location of key infrastructure creates employment with a significant employment multiplier outside of the centre.

It may be cynical but politically is it easier to "sell" class and generational divisions rather than primarily focus on
(1) fixing the root causes (ineffective planning and a short term vision reactive to special interest group agendas)
(2) where to equitably locate the key enablers of future employment generation and facilities which support modern lifestyles?

Dane Allen
April 05, 2018

This article succinctly captures the reality that our over-inflated $3tn housing market goliath is a result of misguided policy on both the supply and demand side of the equation. It's been these myriad of factors that have created the perfect environment for precipitous house price growth over the past 20 years. Whether it's been by intention or by accident is hard to know, perhaps a combination.

At this point the nation needs to have an open open conversation about what we want going forward, free of emotion and recognising and adjusting for the many vested interests that surround this space. If consensus is happy to continue inflating house prices to the benefit of existing homeowners and investors then so be it. If instead we wish to have prices within the reach of first home-buyers and those on lower-incomes and make housing more about shelter as opposed to something to speculate on and use as a retirement vehicle, then OK also.

But there will be some pain as there always are with adjustments as you can't magically make housing more affordable without lowering prices from their existing levels. Here-in lies the political paradox, which John Daly and co. acknowledge. It should also be acknowledged that many politicians on both sides of the divide in influential roles have extensive property portfolios themselves. This raises doubt about their ability to deliver objective policy for the greater good. As Keating so aptly put, always back the horse named self-interest.

Frank
April 05, 2018

Can you clarify your comments “because the means test for the age pension ignores all but the first $200,000 of the value of a home.”

The family home is totally exempt for age pension purposes so I am not aware of a $200,000 limit.

John Daley
April 05, 2018

Hi Frank, The threshold at which the assets test starts to reduce the Age Pension is different for home owners and non-home-owners by $203k. In effect, for both home-owners and non-home-owners there is a common assets test threshold of $457k (for singles), the first $203k of any home is included in the Age Pension means test, and then the rest is ignored. See https://www.humanservices.gov.au/individuals/enablers/assets

Frank
April 05, 2018

I’m sorry to keep on this but you are incorrect. The principal home is never asset or income tested. Not even $1 of it, so to say that the first $200,000 is tested is just incorrect.

Leisa Bell
April 05, 2018

Hi Frank, the $200k is an implied amount due to the difference in asset limits between homeowners ($253,750) and non-homeowners ($456,750). If you own a home, you have an asset limit that is $203,000 lower than a non-homeowner.

 

Leave a Comment:

     

RELATED ARTICLES

Three ways to match housing affordability with good returns

Labor policies and the impact on housing

Home ownership struggles will drive changes

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Noel's share winners and loser plus budget reality check

Among the share success stories is a poor personal experience as Telstra's service needs improving. Plus why the new budget announcements on downsizing and buying a home don't deserve the super hype.

Grantham interview on the coming day of reckoning

Jeremy Grantham has seen it all before, with bubbles every 15 years or so. The higher you go, the longer and greater the fall. You can have a high-priced asset or a high-yielding asset, but not both at the same time.

Five stock recoveries not hanging on COVID predictions

The focus on predicting the recovery from the pandemic is the wrong emphasis. Better to identify great companies benefitting from market changes over a three- to five-year horizon with or without COVID.

BHP v Rio v Fortescue: it's all about the iron ore price

Don’t look at an earnings forecast or a DCF valuation or a broker target price for a mining company. Share price forecasts are only as good as the commodity price assumptions they are based on, and they are a guess.

Blink and you missed a seismic shift in these stocks

Blink and it happened. If announcements in this sector were made by a producer of iron ore, gas, copper or some new tech, the news would have been splashed across the front pages. Have we witnessed a major change?

Peak to peak, which LIC managers performed during COVID?

A comprehensive review of dozens of LICs shows how they performed in the crucial 'peak to peak' of COVID. This 14 months tested the mettle and strategies of a sector often under fire, with many strong results.

Latest Updates

Superannuation

Jane Hume shakes up super, but what will it achieve?

The Government calls 'Your Future, Your Super' the most significant reforms since the start of compulsory super. Stapling has benefits and we should remove poor funds, but performance comparisons are difficult.

Superannuation

Launch of the 'Wealth of Experience' podcast

Welcome to the first episode of our fortnightly podcast, Wealth of Experience, with Graham Hand and Peter Warnes. They have a combined 99 years in markets and they will share this experience to help build your wealth.

Investment strategies

How inflation impacts different types of investments

A comprehensive study of the impact of inflation on returns from different assets over the past 120 years. The high returns in recent years are due to low inflation and falling rates but this ‘sweet spot’ is ending.

Investment strategies

Where will investment returns come from in 2021?

There are only three sources of returns when investing in companies. Whether an investment delivers on dividends, earnings or valuation expansion determines performance, and the contribution of each varies over time.

Investment strategies

Portfolio composition and what you find under the bonnet

Powerful structural themes such as technology disruption and demographic changes may disguise what is driving company success. Watch these broad categories as they may not apply in ways you expect.

Investment strategies

When rates rise, it's time to look for new players on the team

Long duration assets such as government bonds and property have benefitted from falling interest rates, but a turn is coming. It's time to find assets that may benefit from rising rates, such as private debt.

Investment strategies

How are high net worths investing and thinking now?

Citi research delves into how high net worth investors are feeling in the current market, and how they are investing during the drama of the pandemic. There is plenty of optimism and a willingness to stay invested.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2021 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. Any general advice or ‘regulated financial advice’ under New Zealand law has been prepared by Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892) and/or Morningstar Research Ltd, subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc, without reference to your objectives, financial situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide (AU) and Financial Advice Provider Disclosure Statement (NZ). You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.

Website Development by Master Publisher.