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Monday, 20 September 2021
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The Intergenerational Report is an opportunity to talk about ways to a better future, but it is not the one outlined in the paper. It has too many generous assumptions while the budget will always be in deficit.
Every five years, we receive a snapshot of what Australia may look like in 40 years. We will live longer with more spending on health, pensions and super but with fewer workers. Where will 40 million people live?
In 1961, Australian women had 3.5 children on average but by 2018, this figure stood at just 1.7. Falling fertility creates a shift in demographics and the ratio of retirees to working-age people.
One silver lining from changing COVID-19 societal behaviours is an unexpected pickup in Australia’s natural population growth rate, with early-stage pregnancy ultrasounds pointing to a baby boom ahead.
Population decline is a new, yet largely ignored, trend with underrated economic and social costs. Much of the growth that drives economies, especially in Australia, comes from population increases.
Understanding demographics is vital for successful planning and investing for the future. What is happening on population growth, ageing, natural increases, immigration and our role in Asia?
As we approach the 2020s, we are sailing into uncertain waters at best. These times also have some historical precedents, but we need to make important reforms before our luck runs out.
The investment opportunity in listed ‘real assets’ in Australia is almost $250 billion. Offices, roads, warehouses, airports, pipelines and shops are the foundation of economic growth.
Agricultural management and investment has become sophisticated as the world needs more food and fibre, and it not only about the environment but improving the economic returns.
Real assets such as airports will benefit significantly from a massive growth in Asian tourism and a growing middle class, and are less subject to the vagaries of the business cycle.
Economic growth and interest rates affect housing prices, but political decisions around zoning, migration, and taxes are also strong influences. Overall, the current climate suggests a much slower growth in house prices.
Urban growth poses many challenges. The way we live and interact as a society, especially in growing cities, will continue to evolve including the way we shop, how we move around and how land is redeveloped.
Who knew? With some surprise results, the Government is on unexpected firm ground in asking people to draw on all their assets in retirement, although the comments show what feisty and informed readers we have.
The RBA Governor says rising house prices are due to "the design of our taxation and social security systems". The OECD says "the prolonged boom in house prices has inflated the wealth of many pensioners without impacting their pension eligibility." What's your view?
It's a remarkable statistic. In any year since 1875, if you had invested in the Australian stock index, turned away and come back eight years later, your average return would be 120% with no negative periods.
Never stand between Australian households and an uncapped government programme with $3 billion in ‘free money’ to build or renovate their homes. But excess supply is coming with an absence of net migration.
Picking macro trends is difficult. What may seem logical and compelling one minute may completely change a few months later. There are better rewards from focussing on identifying the best companies at good prices.
Some high-quality companies have emerged even stronger since the onset of COVID and are well placed for outperformance. We call these the ‘COVID Opportunists’ as they are now dominating their specific sectors.