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Friday, 25 June 2021
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In 1961, Australian women had 3.5 children on average but by 2018, this figure stood at just 1.7. Falling fertility creates a shift in demographics and the ratio of retirees to working-age people.
One silver lining from changing COVID-19 societal behaviours is an unexpected pickup in Australia’s natural population growth rate, with early-stage pregnancy ultrasounds pointing to a baby boom ahead.
Population decline is a new, yet largely ignored, trend with underrated economic and social costs. Much of the growth that drives economies, especially in Australia, comes from population increases.
Understanding demographics is vital for successful planning and investing for the future. What is happening on population growth, ageing, natural increases, immigration and our role in Asia?
As we approach the 2020s, we are sailing into uncertain waters at best. These times also have some historical precedents, but we need to make important reforms before our luck runs out.
The investment opportunity in listed ‘real assets’ in Australia is almost $250 billion. Offices, roads, warehouses, airports, pipelines and shops are the foundation of economic growth.
Agricultural management and investment has become sophisticated as the world needs more food and fibre, and it not only about the environment but improving the economic returns.
Real assets such as airports will benefit significantly from a massive growth in Asian tourism and a growing middle class, and are less subject to the vagaries of the business cycle.
Economic growth and interest rates affect housing prices, but political decisions around zoning, migration, and taxes are also strong influences. Overall, the current climate suggests a much slower growth in house prices.
Urban growth poses many challenges. The way we live and interact as a society, especially in growing cities, will continue to evolve including the way we shop, how we move around and how land is redeveloped.
The Australian economy faces many challenges from both global and domestic influences, and while opportunities exist for Australian businesses and investors, it's a time for caution.
We don’t know what the world will look like in 2050, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't think about it and plan for different scenarios. Demographic change and growth in emerging markets are major themes.
Among the share success stories is a poor personal experience as Telstra's service needs improving. Plus why the new budget announcements on downsizing and buying a home don't deserve the super hype.
Jeremy Grantham has seen it all before, with bubbles every 15 years or so. The higher you go, the longer and greater the fall. You can have a high-priced asset or a high-yielding asset, but not both at the same time.
The focus on predicting the recovery from the pandemic is the wrong emphasis. Better to identify great companies benefitting from market changes over a three- to five-year horizon with or without COVID.
Don’t look at an earnings forecast or a DCF valuation or a broker target price for a mining company. Share price forecasts are only as good as the commodity price assumptions they are based on, and they are a guess.
Blink and it happened. If announcements in this sector were made by a producer of iron ore, gas, copper or some new tech, the news would have been splashed across the front pages. Have we witnessed a major change?
A comprehensive review of dozens of LICs shows how they performed in the crucial 'peak to peak' of COVID. This 14 months tested the mettle and strategies of a sector often under fire, with many strong results.