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Edition: 361

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 361

  • 10 June 2020

Legendary US fund manager Peter Lynch was an early adopter of what we might now call 'high frequency indicators'. Perhaps 'early warning signs' is better. He sat in shopping malls watching which stores people went into and what they bought. Many traditional economic indicators are out-of-date when they are released, so the market has developed early warnings which have become far more sophisticated than sitting around malls.

Five famous investors with cheap listed funds

Why invest in an unlisted fund by a well-known, experienced fund manager when the equivalent listed fund is offered at a substantial discount? Maybe there's a structural problem to fix here.

Why are recessions usually good for share prices?

It seems counterintuitive, but share prices rose during 17 (85%) of the 20 economic recessions in Australia in the past 150 years as markets tend to anticipate the bad times and recover early.

The ultimate SMSF list: 20 checks for FY20

The end of FY2020 means more rules and regulations to check for members of public super funds and SMSFs. Take advantage of opportunities but also avoid a knock on the door from the regulators.

Four guiding principles to position for the rebound

Too many investors are lumping all companies together in the current crisis, but some businesses will emerge in good shape with recovering revenues, while others are disadvantaged permanently.

Limitless liquidity drives death of the price signal

With central banks injecting as much liquidity as the market needs, the fundamental price signal has been lost. But the evidence is this does not help sustainable and long-term economic growth.

Why the stock market rallies cannot be justified

If a vaccine immediately emerges, equities would rally to an all-time high, implying a better outlook than pre-COVID with absolutely no damage done to the economy. It doesn't make sense.

Spending in retirement and the taper rate

Retirees with between $300,000 and $800,000 in assets face complex questions on the interplay between how to spend their money, the age pension assets test, the taper rate and their longevity.

Warning about investing in unit trusts in June

Investing in unit trusts just before a distribution is paid may see a portion of your capital returned to you in the form of taxable income, which will be a poor outcome for your returns.

Most viewed in recent weeks

A hard dose reality check on vaccines

With 160 programmes underway and billions of dollars spent on COVID-19 vaccines, investors are drawn to optimistic news. However, the company that has developed most new vaccines has a sober view.

After 30 years of investing, I prefer to skip this party

Eventually, prices become so extreme they bear no relationship to reality, and a bubble forms. I believe we are there today, not for all stocks but for many in the technology space.

How we have invested during COVID-19

With signs that the economic recession will not be as deep as first feared, many companies will emerge strongly with robust business models. Here are the sectors with the best opportunities.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 367

There is a similarity between the current health crisis and economic crises of the past. For COVID-19, record amounts of biotech funding from government agencies and private companies are looking for a vaccine. Likewise, central banks once struggled treating recessions but the 'vaccine' now is record amounts of financial stimulus to ensure liquidity. While the world awaits a COVID treatment, markets are purring along, at least until side effects hit.

  • 22 July 2020

Is the '4% rule' for retirement broken?

The traditional 4% rule was designed to ensure retirees do not run out of money, but low interest rates and expensive equity markets question the sustainability of the level. What are the alternatives?

Two great examples of why company management matters

It’s not only products and business models that create wealth. Management teams make decisions on how to deploy capital and such actions drive vastly different outcomes over time.

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