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8 October 2025

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Edition: 427

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 427 with weekend update

  • 30 September 2021
  • 5

All in one week. All on one subject. All buying into the same problem. Let's do a roll call of abbreviations and acronyms. IMF, OECD, CFR, RBA, APRA, ANZ, CBA. What are they all fussing about? Suddenly, they've realised rapidly-rising house prices might cause financial instability, generational inequity, mortgage stress and loan defaults. And did you know a housing inquiry is underway?

The sorry saga of housing affordability and ownership

It is hard to think of any area of widespread public concern where the same policies have been pursued for so long, in the face of such incontrovertible evidence that they have failed to achieve their objectives.

It's coming: 10 ways to cool rampant housing prices

Enough abbreviations and acronyms. IMF, OECD, RBA, APRA, CFR, CBA and ANZ are all calling for curbs on housing lending to head off financial instability and mortgage stress. Why will it take APRA months to issue a paper?

Antipodes’ Jacob Mitchell on his biggest investing lessons

Jacob Mitchell spent 14 years at Platinum before establishing Antipodes in 2015. He discusses trends he is following, his biggest lessons, LICs versus active ETFs and a stock he will hold for at least 10 years.

Move on from franking: Is tax-free retirement fair?

Superannuation funds receive franking credit refunds simply because their marginal tax rates are low, and no other reason. This point is often lost in the franking credit debate, but is low or tax-free super fair?

Never Evergrande: where to from here?

The Chinese Government has been tightening lending conditions for developers but has no motive to undermine the housing market. Evergrande's restructure will be messy but the Government will stabilise the market.

Why market forecasts matter to long-term investors

Investors should prepare for a decade of returns below historical averages for both stocks and bonds. Over the next decade, equity returns may be tiny compared with the lofty double-digit returns of recent years.

What do you expect from your portfolio today?

Recent history has been spectacularly good for most asset classes but there is a the colossal gap between fundamentally-based forecasts of stockmarket returns over the next 5-10 years and investor expectations.

Latest 'Wealth of Experience' podcast

In this episode, Graham and Peter buy into the moves to control house prices, discuss the massive debate on age pension assets test, interview Antipodes' Jacob Mitchell, and observe buyers chasing long-term assets.

Three good comments from the pension asset test article

With articles on the pensions assets test read about 40,000 times, 3,500 survey responses and thousands of comments, there was a lot of great reader participation. A few comments added extra insights.

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Simple maths says the AI investment boom ends badly

This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.

Why we should follow Canada and cut migration

An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.

Are LICs licked?

LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.

Australian house price speculators: What were you thinking?

Australian housing’s 50-year boom was driven by falling rates and rising borrowing power — not rent or yield. With those drivers exhausted, future returns must reconcile with economic fundamentals. Are we ready?

Retirement income expectations hit new highs

Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 627 with weekend update

This week, I got the news that my mother has dementia. It came shortly after my father received the same diagnosis. This is a meditation on getting old and my regrets in not getting my parents’ affairs in order sooner.

  • 4 September 2025

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