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Edition: 446

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 446 with weekend update

  • 17 February 2022

After all the media exposure on Magellan and Hamish Douglass in recent weeks, Geraldine Doogue asked me to discuss fund managers on ABC's Radio National. I thought the subject was something like, "How do you pick a good fund manager?" In fact, she asked me, "What type of person is attracted to stock picking at this level?", which is different.

How can the worst feature of LICs also be the best?

Apparently, Listed Investment Companies trading at a discount to NTA are both the best and worst of worlds. They are either exciting opportunities or not in the best interests of investors. Which is right?

House prices: are we heading for oversupply from 2022?

The biggest risk for investing in residential property is not rising rates but excess supply. Rising prices create a supply response, but since the GFC, there has never been excess supply. Is that about to change?

Howard Marks on selling versus staying invested

Howard Marks writes a regular letter to his clients, but he realised he had not addressed the selling decision. We hear about people who claim they picked a market top but when do they reinvest to enjoy the upside?

Is there any point in holding cash?

Cash is a drag on portfolios when the stockmarket is strong but a welcome bulwark when the market sells off. Moving to cash is justified for the plausible scenario where the value of all other assets falls.

Stocks near their 52-week lows: is it time to reconsider?

Some of nabtrade’s most popular stocks are trading substantially off their highs, and investors should consider whether the stories that drove their popularity in the early stages of Covid are still intact.

SMSF returns competitive with big funds at $200,000

The investment performance of a typical SMSF improves as the fund balance approaches $200,000, after which the fund achieves comparable investment returns with APRA- regulated funds, according to new research.

What real estate agents don't tell you (redux)

The costs of owning an apartment for short-term rental consume most of the income, leaving uninformed investors blind to actual returns until the statements roll in. The practice of marketing gross yields is misleading.

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Are LICs licked?

LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.

Retirement income expectations hit new highs

Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?

5 charts every retiree must see…

Retirement can be daunting for Australians facing financial uncertainty. Understand your goals, longevity challenges, inflation impacts, market risks, and components of retirement income with these crucial charts.

Why super returns may be heading lower

Five mega trends point to risks of a more inflation prone and lower growth environment. This, along with rich market valuations, should constrain medium term superannuation returns to around 5% per annum.

Four best-ever charts for every adviser and investor

In any year since 1875, if you'd invested in the ASX, turned away and come back eight years later, your average return would be 120% with no negative periods. It's just one of the must-have stats that all investors should know.

The hidden property empire of Australia’s politicians

With rising home prices and falling affordability, political leaders preach reform. But asset disclosures show many are heavily invested in property - raising doubts about whose interests housing policy really protects.

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