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Edition: 446

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 446 with weekend update

  • 17 February 2022

After all the media exposure on Magellan and Hamish Douglass in recent weeks, Geraldine Doogue asked me to discuss fund managers on ABC's Radio National. I thought the subject was something like, "How do you pick a good fund manager?" In fact, she asked me, "What type of person is attracted to stock picking at this level?", which is different.

How can the worst feature of LICs also be the best?

Apparently, Listed Investment Companies trading at a discount to NTA are both the best and worst of worlds. They are either exciting opportunities or not in the best interests of investors. Which is right?

House prices: are we heading for oversupply from 2022?

The biggest risk for investing in residential property is not rising rates but excess supply. Rising prices create a supply response, but since the GFC, there has never been excess supply. Is that about to change?

Howard Marks on selling versus staying invested

Howard Marks writes a regular letter to his clients, but he realised he had not addressed the selling decision. We hear about people who claim they picked a market top but when do they reinvest to enjoy the upside?

Is there any point in holding cash?

Cash is a drag on portfolios when the stockmarket is strong but a welcome bulwark when the market sells off. Moving to cash is justified for the plausible scenario where the value of all other assets falls.

Stocks near their 52-week lows: is it time to reconsider?

Some of nabtrade’s most popular stocks are trading substantially off their highs, and investors should consider whether the stories that drove their popularity in the early stages of Covid are still intact.

SMSF returns competitive with big funds at $200,000

The investment performance of a typical SMSF improves as the fund balance approaches $200,000, after which the fund achieves comparable investment returns with APRA- regulated funds, according to new research.

What real estate agents don't tell you (redux)

The costs of owning an apartment for short-term rental consume most of the income, leaving uninformed investors blind to actual returns until the statements roll in. The practice of marketing gross yields is misleading.

Most viewed in recent weeks

3 ways to fix Australia’s affordability crisis

Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.

How cutting the CGT discount could help rebalance housing market

A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.

Making sense of record high markets as the world catches fire

The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.

Is there a better way to reform the CGT discount?

The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 648 with weekend update

This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.

  • 5 February 2026

It’s economic reality, not fear-based momentum, driving gold higher

Most commentary on gold's recent record highs focus on it being the product of fear or speculative momentum. That's ignoring the deeper structural drivers at play. 

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