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21 July 2025
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Demographics, the ageing population and adverse impacts on economic growth, don't overlook risk in portfolios, bonds and inflation risk and pension reform.
Using interactive graphics, we can model the impact of changing demographics on economic growth for all major countries. Will lower growth become the 'new normal' due to an ageing population?
If we expect government policies to deliver implausible growth when a demographic tailwind has become a headwind, we'll have temporary ‘growth’ with debt-financed consumption, with longer term adverse consequences.
We focus far more on the return from our investments rather than the risk, and we should watch for leverage or high risk-taking and expect to be rewarded for it to pay for the added risk.
Investors should not shun bonds in their portfolios due to a misunderstanding about the potential for earnings to grow at least in line with inflation. Fixed income has a role in inflation risk management.
Tapering is the rate at which pensions reduce as other sources of income increase. A change is unlikely to make it onto Joe Hockey's list of pensions amendments in the upcoming budget.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers aims to tackle tax reform but faces challenges. Previous reviews struggled due to political sensitivities, highlighting the need for comprehensive and politically feasible change.
You've no doubt heard about Division 296. These case studies show what people at various levels above the $3 million threshold might need to pay the ATO, with examples ranging from under $500 to more than $35,000.
The $3m super tax could be put down to the Government needing money and the wealthy being easy targets. It’s deeper than that though and this looks at the factors behind the policy and why more taxes on the wealthy are coming.
Business investment and per capita GDP have languished over the past decade and the Labor Government is conducting inquiries to find out why. Franking credits should be part of the debate about our stalling economy.
With Div. 296 looming, is there a smarter way to tax superannuation? This proposes a fairer, income-linked alternative that respects compounding, ensures predictability, and avoids taxing unrealised capital gains.
In selling the super tax, Labor has repeated Treasury claims of there being $50 billion in super tax concessions annually, mostly flowing to high-income earners. This figure is vastly overstated.