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1 March 2026
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Demographics, the ageing population and adverse impacts on economic growth, don't overlook risk in portfolios, bonds and inflation risk and pension reform.
Using interactive graphics, we can model the impact of changing demographics on economic growth for all major countries. Will lower growth become the 'new normal' due to an ageing population?
If we expect government policies to deliver implausible growth when a demographic tailwind has become a headwind, we'll have temporary ‘growth’ with debt-financed consumption, with longer term adverse consequences.
We focus far more on the return from our investments rather than the risk, and we should watch for leverage or high risk-taking and expect to be rewarded for it to pay for the added risk.
Investors should not shun bonds in their portfolios due to a misunderstanding about the potential for earnings to grow at least in line with inflation. Fixed income has a role in inflation risk management.
Tapering is the rate at which pensions reduce as other sources of income increase. A change is unlikely to make it onto Joe Hockey's list of pensions amendments in the upcoming budget.
The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.
The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.
Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.
The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.
A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.
This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.