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18 September 2025
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Current sharemarket rhyming with post-1973, 32 years of performance data, thinking irrationally and small v large caps.
Who is the greatest market analyst of all time? Towering above all is Mark Twain with his immortal line: “no occurrence is sole and solitary, but is merely a repetition of a thing which has happened before, and perhaps often ...”
Future returns from different asset classes are always uncertain and subject to contrary forecasts, but there are useful lessons from the past. As Shakespeare wrote in The Tempest, "What is past is prologue."
Each day, we respond to problems quickly, automatically and often gullibly, giving undue attention to details that stand out easily. Critical information is often ignored. The best investors are those who can hear through the noise.
There are reasons why small cap stocks have a history of long term outperformance, although recently, the preference for defensive large cap yields has dominated.
This extract from Harvard Business Review looks at how meaningful work for retirees can help avoid the problems that a rapidly rising dependency ratio will cause. In the US, 10,000 baby boomers turn 60 every day.
Australia could unlock smarter investment and greater equity by reforming housing tax concessions. Rethinking exemptions on the family home could benefit most Australians, especially renters and owners of modest homes.
The creator of the 4% rule for retirement withdrawals, Bill Bengen, has written a new book outlining fresh strategies to outlive your money, including holding fewer stocks in early retirement before increasing allocations.
This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.
An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.
Are franking credits factored into share prices? The data suggests they're probably not, and there are certain types of stocks that offer higher franking credits as well as the prospect for higher returns.
LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.