Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 8

Jumping frogs and rhyming markets

Who is the greatest market analyst of all time? Some will nominate Benjamin Graham. Some may opt for his student Warren Buffett. I liked Ron Brierley in his day, although his lustre has faded.

But towering above them all is Mark Twain. Mark Twain, you may ask?  Wasn’t he a writer and a Mississippi riverboat poker-shark? What does he know about markets? Well, everything apparently.

"The Celebrated Jumping Frog of Calaveras County" is an 1865 short story by Twain, his first success as a writer, bringing him to national attention. In it the narrator tells a story about a gambler betting on a jumping frog.

In this story, Twain pens an immortal line for stockmarket scholars about his favorite theory: “no occurrence is sole and solitary, but is merely a repetition of a thing which has happened before, and perhaps often ...”

Like Twain, we have asked ourselves, “Haven’t I seen this all before?” At an individual level this is usually called déjà vu and can strike with incidents in life, memories triggered by visits to different places, smells or sounds.

On a bigger canvas, this is called historic recurrence and is the repetition of similar events in history often separated by long periods of time. The concept of historic recurrence has been applied particularly to the rise and fall of empires and the continual and relentless wars that erupt between tribes and nation states. Nowhere is this better observed than in the history of Afghanistan. Since the time of Alexander the Great, this beautiful but blighted region has been subjected to continual periodic invasions where the invader always and inevitably loses and goes home with its tail between its legs. If G.W. Bush had been a student of historic recurrence, much American blood and treasure (and a not inconsiderable amount of Australian) could have been saved. Alas, he doesn’t appear to have been much of a student of anything!

While people often say, “History repeats itself" in cycles, this is never exactly true. This was also appreciated by Twain, obviously a student of the long cycle, when he wrote, "History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme."

Recurrences take place due to sometimes subtle and not readily identifiable circumstances. Some of these factors may not be understood at the time the event is occurring and may only become apparent years later. The reason for the recurrence will often be hotly debated. Nowhere is this better evidenced than in the stockmarket.

As the chart below shows the stockmarket may not be repeating history but it’s rhyming, with all the exuberance of a Wordsworth poem.

The Australian equity market is presently repeating a performance pattern similar to the mid 1970’s recovery. It’s not performing exactly the same way, but it’s close. It is now 65 months with a 25% decline since the Australian equity market peaked in late 2007. Over the same time frame (65 months) from the pre-decline peak in January 1973 to March 1978, the All Ordinaries Index had fallen by approximately the same amount as shown in the chart. Both periods experienced peak to trough reversals of more than 50%.

The chart shows the returns from the All Ordinaries Index post the 1973 and 2007 peaks. As is readily observable, the moves in the two periods tend to mirror each other. Let’s say it is not repeating itself but it sure is rhyming.

“So what?”, you may ask. The model, if it is a true example of historical recurrence, may predict the course of the sharemarket over the next couple of years. Or it may not.

Why would this rhyming model work? Simple. The stockmarket is a barometer of human emotion and particularly human frailty. It registers them all … fear, greed, lust, paranoia, confusion, panic, herd-mentality, envy and disappointment. It’s a big human stew but the ingredients never change so the taste is the same, although it comes to the boil at different times. “Gee haven’t I tasted this somewhere before?” The ingredients never change because people never change. Not really. Not even over long periods of time.

The herd always charges off together in one direction then just wait, what’s that sound you hear? It’s the herd charging back again in the opposite direction. They head off over the hill. What is the only thing you know for sure? That given time you will see them all come thundering over that same hill heading in the direction they first came from. Humans, like jumping frogs and migrating wildebeest, never change. The graphs from 1973 and 2007 demonstrate this.

Writing novels and playing poker on riverboats, while consuming large quantities of whisky, does not a great market analyst make! Or does it? I think I’ll try it.

 

Kieran Kelly is Managing Director of Sirius Fund Management and has over 30 years’ experience in fund management and sharebroking.

 


 

Leave a Comment:

RELATED ARTICLES

An odd and wild ASX reporting season

Why long term investing is not easy

Who wins? Australians investing in US shares

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Australian house prices close in on world record

Sydney is set to become the world’s most expensive city for housing over the next 12 months, a new report shows. Our other major cities aren’t far behind unless there are major changes to improve housing affordability.

The case for the $3 million super tax

The Government's proposed tax has copped a lot of flack though I think it's a reasonable approach to improve the long-term sustainability of superannuation and the retirement income system. Here’s why.

Tariffs are a smokescreen to Trump's real endgame

Behind market volatility and tariff threats lies a deeper strategy. Trump’s real goal isn’t trade reform but managing America's massive debts, preserving bond market confidence, and preparing for potential QE.

The super tax and the defined benefits scandal

Australia's superannuation inequities date back to poor decisions made by Parliament two decades ago. If super for the wealthy needs resetting, so too does the defined benefits schemes for our public servants.

Meg on SMSFs: Withdrawing assets ahead of the $3m super tax

The super tax has caused an almighty scuffle, but for SMSFs impacted by the proposed tax, a big question remains: what should they do now? Here are ideas for those wanting to withdraw money from their SMSF.

Getting rich vs staying rich

Strategies to get rich versus stay rich are markedly different. Here is a look at the five main ways to get rich, including through work, business, investing and luck, as well as those that preserve wealth.

Latest Updates

SMSF strategies

Meg on SMSFs: Withdrawing assets ahead of the $3m super tax

The super tax has caused an almighty scuffle, but for SMSFs impacted by the proposed tax, a big question remains: what should they do now? Here are ideas for those wanting to withdraw money from their SMSF.

Superannuation

The huge cost of super tax concessions

The current net annual cost of superannuation tax subsidies is around $40 billion, growing to more than $110 billion by 2060. These subsidies have always been bad policy, representing a waste of taxpayers' money.

Planning

How to avoid inheritance fights

Inspired by the papal conclave, this explores how families can avoid post-death drama through honest conversations, better planning, and trial runs - so there are no surprises when it really matters.

Superannuation

Super contribution splitting

Super contribution splitting allows couples to divide before-tax contributions to super between spouses, maximizing savings. It’s not for everyone, but in the right circumstances, it can be a smart strategy worth exploring.

Economy

Trump vs Powell: Who will blink first?

The US economy faces an unprecedented clash in leadership styles, but the President and Fed Chair could both take a lesson from the other. Not least because the fiscal and monetary authorities need to work together.

Gold

Credit cuts, rising risks, and the case for gold

Shares trade at steep valuations despite higher risks of a recession. Amid doubts that a 60/40 portfolio can still provide enough protection through times of market stress, gold's record shines bright.

Investment strategies

Buffett acolyte warns passive investors of mediocre future returns

While Chris Bloomstan doesn't have the track record of his hero, it's impressive nonetheless. And he's recently warned that today has uncanny resemblances to the 1990s tech bubble and US returns are likely to be disappointing.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.