Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 351

Every bear is different

The COVID-19 bear market hit severely, with the 34% fall in the S&P500 from 19 February 2020 to 23 March 2020, making it the quickest collapse in history. A bear market is usually defined as a 20% fall in a market index, and in March 2020, this took only 20 days.

Compared with other bears, however, there are reasons this bear market could be shorter. There has already been a strong recovery, although clearly this could be a bear market rally.

This short article compares the latest falls with previous bear markets, noting the one thing they all have in common – they end.

Consider the following chart of bear markets in the Australian All Ords Accumulation Index. 

  • Every bear market is different in terms of its speed and duration of falls, and how long they last.
  • In a bear market, panic selling of assets turns mark-to-market, or paper losses, into real losses.
  • The nature of each bear market is determined by the initial shock that triggered them (demand or supply side) and the quality of the policy response (weak versus strong).
  • The COVID-19 bear market was triggered by a supply side shock that quickly escalated into a profound demand side shock as health policies saw activity ‘stop’ during the lockdown phase of managing the rate of infection.
  • The policy response to this biological shock has been swift, dynamic and comprehensive. Central banks are providing unbound liquidity and fiscal policy is helping economies ride through to when infection rates begin to fall or a vaccine is close.
  • The nature of the COVID-19 biological shock helps explain the speed and depth of fall in the Australian share market compared to other bear markets.
  • The vigorous policy response and finite nature of the event suggests that this bear market will have more of a ‘U’ shape and be shorter in duration than other bear markets.

All Ordinaries Accumulation Index (100=cycle peak) in previous bear markets 

Source: Janus Henderson, does not include the subsequent rise in the All Ords of about 15% to end March 2020.

 

Frank Uhlenbruch is an Investment Strategist in the Janus Henderson Australian Fixed Interest Team. This article is general information and does not consider the circumstances of any investor.

 


 

Leave a Comment:

RELATED ARTICLES

Bear markets don't go paw-in-paw with recessions

Suddenly, the market cares if a company makes money (again)

Four stages of a typical bear market - but is this typical?

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Which generation had it toughest?

Each generation believes its economic challenges were uniquely tough - but what does the data say? A closer look reveals a more nuanced, complex story behind the generational hardship debate. 

Maybe it’s time to consider taxing the family home

Australia could unlock smarter investment and greater equity by reforming housing tax concessions. Rethinking exemptions on the family home could benefit most Australians, especially renters and owners of modest homes.

The best way to get rich and retire early

This goes through the different options including shares, property and business ownership and declares a winner, as well as outlining the mindset needed to earn enough to never have to work again.

A perfect storm for housing affordability in Australia

Everyone has a theory as to why housing in Australia is so expensive. There are a lot of different factors at play, from skewed migration patterns to banking trends and housing's status as a national obsession.

Supercharging the ‘4% rule’ to ensure a richer retirement

The creator of the 4% rule for retirement withdrawals, Bill Bengen, has written a new book outlining fresh strategies to outlive your money, including holding fewer stocks in early retirement before increasing allocations.

Chinese steel - building a Sydney Harbour Bridge every 10 minutes

China's steel production, equivalent to building one Sydney Harbour Bridge every 10 minutes, has driven Australia's economic growth. With China's slowdown, what does this mean for Australia's economy and investments?

Latest Updates

Superannuation

Super crosses the retirement Rubicon

Australia's superannuation system faces a 'Rubicon' moment, a turning point where the focus is shifting from accumulation phase to retirement readiness, but unfortunately, many funds are not rising to the challenge.

Economy

Should Australia follow Trump's new brand of capitalism?

A new brand of capitalism may be emerging - one where governments take equity in private companies. Is it state overreach, or a smarter way to fund public goods without raising taxes?

Gold

Why gold may keep rising - and what could stop it

Central banks are buying, Asia’s investing, and gold’s going digital. The World Gold Council CEO reveals the structural shifts transforming the gold market - and the one economic wildcard that could change everything. 

Investment strategies

Fact, fiction and fission: The future of nuclear energy

Nuclear power is back in the spotlight, including in Australia. For investors exploring the sector, here are four key factors to consider in this evolving energy landscape. 

Taxation

The myth of Australia’s high corporate tax rate

Australia’s corporate tax rate is widely seen as a growth-killing burden. But for most local investors, it’s a mirage - erased by dividend imputation. So why is it still shaping national policy? 

Taxation

Should we change the company tax rate?

The headline 30% corporate tax rate masks a complex system of dividend imputation and franking credits that ensures Australian shareholders are taxed only once, challenging traditional measures of tax competitiveness. 

Investing

Noise cancelling for investors

A lot of the information at an investor's fingertips today has little long-term value. The modern investing greats are not united by access to faster information, but by their ability to filter out what doesn’t matter.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.