Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Register

9 September 2026

Home / White Papers 2024

Fiscal dominance: Emerging markets’ upper-hand

  •   VanEck
  •   21 March 2024
  •      
  •   

Executive Summary

  • Fiscal dominance is an economic condition that arises when debts and deficits are so high that monetary policy loses traction.
  • The absence of ‘fiscal dominance’ in emerging markets (EM) helps explain why EM hard-currency bonds outperformed their developed markets (DM) counterparts for the past 20 years.
  • Emerging markets’ superior fiscal and monetary policy stance is also beginning to generate better risk/return statistics in EM local-currency bonds.
  • Low debt and deficits have allowed emerging markets monetary authorities to conduct inflation-focused monetary policy, while high debt and deficits in developed markets have diluted central bank independence and their focus on inflation.
  • The result of developed markets’ ‘fiscal dominance’ has, in recent decades, meant that all financial crises since 1998 basically involve the large developed markets.
  • The result is also declining inflation risks in emerging markets, but rising inflation risks in developed markets.
  • The deficit-producing developed markets need financing from the surplus-producing emerging markets, but the emerging markets are increasingly geopolitical rivals with developed markets, increasing risks to developed markets.
  • Within emerging markets, Asia is the first beneficiary, with the strongest policy track record and the strongest results in terms of historic bond performance and anchored inflation.
  • For investors, this means that an allocation to emerging market bonds is an important part of a global bond portfolio, and we think an unconstrained approach is the best way to take advantage of opportunities within EM bonds.

Download the full paper

  •   21 March 2024
  •      
  •   

 

Leave a Comment:
Firstlinks is sponsored by:
banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Why have Australian living standards 'fallen' and how do we fix it?

For the last few years there has been much talk of a 'cost-of-living' crisis in Australia and of 'falling living standards'. Lately this has flared up again with the pickup in inflation resulting in a renewed fall in real wages.

Will you run out of money in retirement?

Fear of running out has become a defining retirement anxiety. Why do some retirees die with substantial wealth while others deplete their nest egg? Evidence suggests the answer is more complicated than we think. 

Four options for an income investor’s next dollar

What if Australia’s golden age of dividends is ending? Rather than overhaul your portfolio, it may be worth considering where new capital can work harder. I discuss four income strategies and the trade-offs behind each.

Why spending more in early retirement can improve lifetime income

Conventional wisdom encourages retirees to preserve superannuation. But if those likely to qualify for the Age Pension later in life spend a little more today, it may deliver higher lifetime income and a more stable retirement.

The investment that sidesteps the new tax traps

Tax rules have changed, but many investors are still using yesterday’s strategies. Insurance bonds may offer advantages for those seeking greater control, tax efficiency and certainty about their wealth.

Testamentary trusts have secured the CGT exemption

Treasury’s latest CGT reform draft delivers a win for testamentary trusts and deceased estates, exempting estate-derived gains from the 30% floor. However, questions on death and divorce rollovers remain unresolved.

Latest Updates

Shares

Is it time to bail on Australian stocks?

For generations, Australian investors have backed banks, miners and dividends. But has that loyalty come at a cost? A look at the numbers raises an uncomfortable question about where future returns will come from.

Investment strategies

Making a case for the 40 year mortgage

The housing debate tends to focus on prices, interest rates and deposits. Yet an overlooked feature of the mortgage itself could help buyers enter the market sooner without abandoning prudent lending standards.

SMSF strategies

Red flags to watch out for when considering an SMSF

Thinking about an SMSF? Before you sign anything, learn how to spot the difference between genuine advice and a sales pitch, understand the real costs, and avoid the compliance mistakes that attract ATO attention.

Investment strategies

Not all income is created equal

Market conditions are shifting as familiar yield sources quietly lose momentum. Australian public credit may be the most compelling source of income in today's market but many investors haven't noticed the shift. 

Investment strategies

The market paid for change, not comfort

Reporting season has delivered a clear message: the market is no longer paying simply for quality, resilience or an earnings beat. It is paying for change in earnings expectations and the outlook ahead. 

Investment strategies

Will AI destroy investor capital?

Some of history's most important innovations changed the world while leaving investors much poorer. As trillions pour into AI, a familiar pattern may be emerging, one that rewards society far more generously than capital.

ASX reporting season: Signals, surprises, stock stories

August reporting season delivered strong earnings and bigger-than-expected dividends, but beneath this, a more nuanced story emerged. First Sentier Investors’ David Wilson and Christian Guerra unpack the key trends.

Sponsors

Alliances

  • ASA-Logo-RGB-ActiveGreen-web.png

Site Map

About Firstlinks

© 2026 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.