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7 October 2025
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With the US Federal Reserve (Fed) appearing to be on course to begin cutting interest rates in September, In this paper, we want to follow up on a recent analysis we published about asset-market performance after the start of a Fed easing cycle. The earlier study focused on performance of US stocks and bonds, and in this new analysis we expand the study to include non-US equities. The Fed’s interest-rate decisions have global impact, and we believe that many other central banks will also reduce rates.
Analyzing historical global equity performance in the 12 months after the Fed’s first rate cut, we find that equity markets tend to have positive performance when rate cuts are not followed by a recession. In some cases, rate cuts can help the performance of equities—with returns over the ensuing 12 months above historical annual averages. To assess likely outcomes, it’s crucial to consider the timing of the cuts relative to the economic context.
Download the full paper
This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.
An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.
LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.
Australian housing’s 50-year boom was driven by falling rates and rising borrowing power — not rent or yield. With those drivers exhausted, future returns must reconcile with economic fundamentals. Are we ready?
Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?
This week, I got the news that my mother has dementia. It came shortly after my father received the same diagnosis. This is a meditation on getting old and my regrets in not getting my parents’ affairs in order sooner.
On every valuation metric, the US appears significantly more expensive than Australia. However, American companies are also much more profitable than ours, which means the ASX may be more overvalued than most think.
Government spending is out of control and there's little sign that Labor will curb it. We need enforceable rules on spending and an empowered budget office to ensure governments act responsibly with taxpayers money.
The idea of stopping work during your sixties is a man-made concept from another age. In a world where many jobs are knowledge based and can be done from anywhere, it may no longer make much sense at all.
The tech giants are in a money-throwing contest to secure AI supremacy and may fall short of high investor expectations. The companies supplying this arms race could offer a more attractive way to play AI adoption.
Whether for yourself or a family member, it’s never too early to start thinking about aged care. This looks at the best ways to plan ahead, as well as the changes coming to aged care from November 1 this year.
ESG investing has fallen out of favour with many investors, and Trump's anti-green policies haven't helped. Yet, renewables investment is still surging, which could prove a boon for infrastructure companies.
From buying the whole market to controlling emotions, John Bogle’s legendary advice reminds investors that patience, discipline, and low costs are the keys to investment success in any market environment.