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Global Outlook 1Q 2022

Executive Summary

- In the US, the recovery from the shutdown-induced recession/repression is largely complete. Growth will be mostly trend-like, 1.5%-2.5%, with some potential for above-trend growth in leisure-oriented sectors.

- We maintain the view that global inflation will return toward pre- COVID-19 rates sometime soon, as pipeline pressures begin to ease.

- After a very strong rebound in 2021 returning GDP to its pre-crisis level, we expect economic growth in Europe to moderate gradually over the course of 2022.

- We expect China growth for 2022 will come in between 4.5% and 5.5%, with policymakers focused on high-quality growth and assuming no reversal in China’s intended policy messaging on housing, education and internet sectors.

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