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11 August 2022
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Michael J. Bazdarich, PhD, Product Specialist/Economist
US inflation today is the worst since that of the late-1960s and 1970s, but the current experience differs from that previous period in important respects. Unlike 55 years ago, the current inflation has emerged without any true boom in US growth. Similarly, real wages and real incomes are declining, something not seen in the 1960s when inflation took off then. Also, there appears to have been more disparity in price increases across goods and services sectors recently than was the case in the 1960s or 1970s, an indication of the monetary nature of 1960s’ inflation versus the supply-constraint-driven nature of the current experience.
Then, inflation emerged after more than five years of fast growth and sharply lower unemployment than previously. Now, inflation has emerged after one year of economic growth that failed to offset declines inflicted by COVID-19 and despite an unemployment rate higher than previously. Really ??
Amid thousands of comments, tips include developing interests to keep occupied, planning in advance to have enough money, staying connected with friends and communities ... should you defer retirement or just do it?
Retirement is a good experience if you plan for it and manage your time, but freedom from money worries is key. Many retirees enjoy managing their money but SMSFs are not for everyone. Each retirement is different.
Investing is often portrayed as unapproachably complex. Can it be distilled into nine tips? An economist with 35 years of experience through numerous market cycles and events has given it a shot.
A new standard argues the majority of Australians will never achieve the ASFA 'comfortable' level of retirement savings and it amounts to 'fearmongering' by vested interests. If comfortable is aspirational, so be it.
The 2021 Census reports that Millennials are now the largest generational group in Australia. While we are increasingly secular and culturally diverse, our differences are far more accepted than the way the US is heading. And please take our short retirement survey.
Billionaire fund manager standoff: Ray Dalio thinks investing is common sense and markets are simple, while Howard Marks says complex and convoluted 'second-level' thinking is needed for superior returns.
Now we're captivated by inflation and higher rates but only a year ago, investors were certain of the supremacy of US companies, the benign nature of inflation and the remoteness of tighter monetary policy.
Companies have been slow to update guidance and we have yet to see the impact of inflation expectations in earnings and outlooks. Companies need to insulate costs from inflation while enjoying an uptick in revenue.
Weaker share prices may have already discounted some bad news, but cost inflation is creating wide divergences inside and across sectors. Early results show some companies are strong enough to resist sector falls.
In 2002, the share price of the company that became Sydney Airport (SYD) hit 80 cents from the $2 IPO price. After 20 years of astute investment driving revenue increases, it sold to private hands for $8.75 in 2022.
There are significant differences in the sector weightings of an ethical fund versus an index, and while this has caused some short-term headwinds recently, the tailwinds are expected to blow over the long term.
Many new investors make common mistakes while learning about markets. Losses are inevitable. Newbies should read more and develop a long-term focus while avoiding big mistakes and not aiming to be brilliant.
Lenders use Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities to finance mortgages and RMBS are available to retail investors through fund structures. They come with many layers of protection beyond movements in house prices.