Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Register

27 November 2025

Home / White Papers 2022

Inflation now versus 1960s-1970s experience

Michael J. Bazdarich, PhD, Product Specialist/Economist

US inflation today is the worst since that of the late-1960s and 1970s, but the current experience differs from that previous period in important respects. Unlike 55 years ago, the current inflation has emerged without any true boom in US growth. Similarly, real wages and real incomes are declining, something not seen in the 1960s when inflation took off then. Also, there appears to have been more disparity in price increases across goods and services sectors recently than was the case in the 1960s or 1970s, an indication of the monetary nature of 1960s’ inflation versus the supply-constraint-driven nature of the current experience.

  • The present inflation experience differs from that of the late-1960s and 1970s in important respects.
  • Then, inflation emerged after more than five years of fast growth and sharply lower unemployment than previously. Now, inflation has emerged after one year of economic growth that failed to offset declines inflicted by COVID-19 and despite an unemployment rate higher than previously.
  • Current inflation gives workers and merchants cause for complaint in a way that its 1960s predecessor did not, inflicting declines in real incomes that were not seen in the late-1960s or early-1970s.
  • There has been more disparity recently between goods and services price increases than was the case in the 1960s and 1970s—an indication of the monetary nature of the 1960s inflation versus the supply-constraint-driven nature of the current experience.
  • Presently, after a hugely less buoyant recovery than the 1960s and with higher prices inflicting pain, prices will be under intense, downward pressure. With monetary tightening piling on as well, those effects will be even more intense.

Download the full report

  •   4 August 2022
  • 1
  •      
  •   
Firstlinks is sponsored by:
banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

The growing debt burden of retiring Australians

More Australians are retiring with larger mortgages and less super. This paper explores how unlocking housing wealth can help ease the nation’s growing retirement cashflow crunch.

LICs vs ETFs – which perform best?

With investor sentiment shifting and ETFs surging ahead, we pit Australia’s biggest LICs against their ETF rivals to see which delivers better returns over the short and long term. The results are revealing.

Warren Buffett's final lesson

I’ve long seen Buffett as a flawed genius: a great investor though a man with shortcomings. With his final letter to Berkshire shareholders, I reflect on how my views of Buffett have changed and the legacy he leaves.

Family trusts: Are they still worth it?

Family trusts remain a core structure for wealth management, but rising ATO scrutiny and complex compliance raise questions about their ongoing value. Are the benefits still worth the administrative burden?

13 ways to save money on your tax - legally

Thoughtful tax planning is a cornerstone of successful investing. This highlights 13 legal ways that you can reduce tax, preserve capital, and enhance long-term wealth across super, property, and shares.

Why it’s time to ditch the retirement journey

Retirement isn’t a clean financial arc. Income shocks, health costs and family pressures hit at random, exposing the limits of age-based planning and the myth of a predictable “retirement journey".

Latest Updates

Weekly Editorial

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 639

Thank you for the hundreds of responses to our Reader Survey and to maximise the sample size, we’re leaving it open until this Sunday. Here is an overview of the results so far.

  • 27 November 2025
  • 1
Investment strategies

Where to hide in the ‘everything bubble’

It might not be quite an ‘everything bubble’ but there’s froth in many assets, not just US stocks, right now. It might be time to stress test your portfolio and consider assets that could offer you shelter if trouble is coming.

Investment strategies

The ultimate investing hack: dividend growth stocks

Investors often fall prey to ‘amygdala hijacks,’ letting emotion trump reason. By focusing on dividend-growth with stocks instead of volatile prices, you can steady your mindset and let compounding do the work. 

Investment strategies

CBA or global banks?

CBA’s recent pullback highlights single-stock risk. Global banks trade at lower P/Es with rising earnings and dividends, offering investors both income potential and long-term value beyond the local market.

Investment strategies

Global dividends rising, but Australia lags

Global dividend growth surged in the third quarter, with median growth of almost 6%. Australia was a notable exception as dividends fell, thanks to flagging mining company payouts.

Economy

I called inflation's rise and fall and here's what's next

In 2020, I warned that surging US money supply growth would spark inflation. By early 2023, I said US money supply was dropping dramatically and that meant inflation would decline. Here's what happens next.

Superannuation

Are excessive super funds giving Australia “Dutch Disease”?

The irony is profound: a system designed to secure Australians’ futures may be systematically dismantling the economic diversity necessary for long-term prosperity.

Investment strategies

Could your children pass the inheritance ‘stress test’?

You devote years of your life working, saving and investing, striving to build a legacy that will outlive you. Before any wealth moves to the next generation, here are six questions every parent should ask themselves.

Sponsors

Alliances

Site Map

About Firstlinks

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.