Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 403

Mind the bond/equity rebalancing gap

At the end of the first quarter of 2021, the MSCI World equity index had returned 55% (total return in USD) over 12 months, while the return of the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate (bond) index was just 4.7%, giving equities a 48% outperformance (see Exhibit 1).

Rebalancing required

The quarter-on-quarter gap between equity and bond returns through the end of March 2021 was 9.2% compared to 12.4% in the previous quarter. The most significant change in the pattern of returns is that the equity outperformance over the last year came primarily in 2020, while the underperformance of bonds was greatest in the first quarter of 2021.

This divergence will require many institutional investors to rebalance their portfolios to attain their preferred allocation. This will be particularly true for insurance companies and pension funds that typically follow quite closely to a 50-50 split between bonds and equities in their allocations.

In the US, this split has rarely varied by more than a few percentage points and the allocation to corporate bonds and US Treasuries has been similarly stable (see Exhibit 2).

Given that equities generally outperform bonds over time, achieving this target allocation (instead of maximising total returns) inevitably requires redemptions from equities and purchases of bonds.

Indeed, since the GFC, institutional investors have bought bonds every year, but they bought equities only twice and then only in small amounts (see Exhibit 3).

No meaningful impact

What might we expect in terms of fund flows in the upcoming quarter as US insurance companies and pensions align their allocations with the allocations they had at the end of 2020?

Assuming funds flows in the first quarter of 2021 were the same as in the last quarter of 2020, and applying the relevant index returns to the existing asset base, in the absence of rebalancing, we estimate allocations to:

  • equities would be 0.4% above target
  • corporate bonds would be 0.3% below target
  • Treasuries would actually be in line (the decline in the value of the Treasury portfolio due to rising rates has largely been offset by new bond purchases).

To restore the allocations, US institutional investors would need to buy about USD11 billion in Treasuries, USD58 billion in corporate bonds and redeem USD69 billion in equities.

These figures are only a percentage of typical purchases and redemptions, so we do not expect a meaningful impact on the market from institutional investor portfolio rebalancing this quarter.

 

Daniel Morris is Chief Market Strategist at BNP Paribas Asset ManagementThis article was first published on 6 April 2021 on Investors’ Corner.

This information is issued by BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT Australia Limited ABN 78 008 576 449, AFSL 223418. The information published does not constitute financial product advice, an offer to issue or recommendation to acquire any financial product. You will need to seek your own advice for any topic covered in the article. Investing in specialised sectors is likely to be subject to a higher-than-average volatility due to a high degree of concentration, greater uncertainty because less information is available, there is less liquidity or due to greater sensitivity to changes in market conditions (social, political and economic conditions).

 

  •   14 April 2021
  •      
  •   

 

Leave a Comment:

RELATED ARTICLES

Why investors will continue to pay up for the US market and Mag 7

10 key investment themes for 2022

10 key themes for 2021

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Retirement income expectations hit new highs

Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?

Four best-ever charts for every adviser and investor

In any year since 1875, if you'd invested in the ASX, turned away and come back eight years later, your average return would be 120% with no negative periods. It's just one of the must-have stats that all investors should know.

Why super returns may be heading lower

Five mega trends point to risks of a more inflation prone and lower growth environment. This, along with rich market valuations, should constrain medium term superannuation returns to around 5% per annum.

Preparing for aged care

Whether for yourself or a family member, it’s never too early to start thinking about aged care. This looks at the best ways to plan ahead, as well as the changes coming to aged care from November 1 this year.

Our experts on Jim Chalmers' super tax backdown

Labor has caved to pressure on key parts of the Division 296 tax, though also added some important nuances. Here are six experts’ views on the changes and what they mean for you.        

Why I dislike dividend stocks

If you need income then buying dividend stocks makes perfect sense. But if you don’t then it makes little sense because it’s likely to limit building real wealth. Here’s what you should do instead.

Latest Updates

Investment strategies

LICs vs ETFs – which perform best?

With investor sentiment shifting and ETFs surging ahead, we pit Australia’s biggest LICs against their ETF rivals to see which delivers better returns over the short and long term. The results are revealing.

Retirement

The growing debt burden of retiring Australians

More Australians are retiring with larger mortgages and less super. This paper explores how unlocking housing wealth can help ease the nation’s growing retirement cashflow crunch.

The ASX is full of broken blue chips

Investing in the ASX 20 or 200 requires vigilance. Blue chips aren’t immune to failure, and the old belief that you can simply hold them forever is outdated. 

Shares

Buying Guzman y Gomez, and not just for the burritos

Adding high-quality compounders at attractive valuations is difficult in an efficient market. However, during the volatile FY25 reporting season, an opportunity arose to increase a position in Mexican fast-food chain GYG.

Investment strategies

Factor investing and how to use ETFs to your advantage

Factor-based ETFs are bridging the gap between active and passive investing, giving investors low-cost access to proven drivers of long-term returns such as quality, value, momentum and dividend yield. 

Strategy

Engineers vs lawyers: the US-China divide that will shape this century

In Breakneck, Dan Wang contrasts China’s “engineering state” with America’s “lawyerly society,” showing how these mindsets drive innovation, dysfunction, and reshape global power amid rising rivalry. 

Retirement

18 rules for ageing well

The rules to age successfully include, 'the unexamined life lasts longer', 'change no more than one-eighth of your life at a time', 'nobody is thinking about you', and 'pursue virtue but don’t sweat it'.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.