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28 February 2026
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It is almost impossible to identify a bubble in real time, and history shows they last far longer than we think, giving investors (perhaps misplaced) hope and short-sellers seemingly endless pain before the share price collapses.
The renowned investor says there’s no shortage of speculative investors chasing AI riches and there could be a lot of money lost in the process. His biggest warning goes to workers and the jobs which will be replaced by AI.
OpenAI’s business model isn't sustainable in the long run. If markets catch on, the company could face higher borrowing costs, or worse, and that would have major spillover effects.
This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.
Companies trading at over 10x revenue now account for over 20% of the MSCI World index, levels not seen since the dotcom bubble. Can these shares create lasting value, or are they destined to unravel?
Markets are not driven by numbers alone. Examples from Tesla shares to Sydney houses show that investors must evaluate not just tangible assets or financials, but also the intangible story that magnifies their value.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
Using the internet bubble of the 1990s as a guide, we draw lessons for today’s investors in the Generative AI mania. Although bubbles eventually end in a bust, the mania generates capital investment that often yields long-term benefits.
Thanks to the 'Magnificent Seven' stocks, global passive investors thrashed most active peers in 2023. But there's a hitch: these investors' portfolios are now concentrated in the most overvalued segment of the market.
Current stock market enthusiasm calls for caution, with rates now in restrictive territory and several indicators portending trouble ahead. There are some opportunities in areas that haven't been caught up in the market hype.
Price is a subjective measure with no mathematical definition, but valuation approximates the truth. With many stock prices down, investors looking to buy should consider three steps suited to current market conditions.
Long gone is the time when investing was only finding traditional value stocks making profits. Now there's Bitcoin, crypto, NFTs, memes, and finfluencers. Among a few winners, much of it will not end well.
The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.
The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.
Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.
The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.
A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.
This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.