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Asset Bubble

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Simple maths says the AI investment boom ends badly

This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.

The wisdom of buying absurdly expensive stocks (or not!)

Companies trading at over 10x revenue now account for over 20% of the MSCI World index, levels not seen since the dotcom bubble. Can these shares create lasting value, or are they destined to unravel?

The million-dollar banana and the power of story

Markets are not driven by numbers alone. Examples from Tesla shares to Sydney houses show that investors must evaluate not just tangible assets or financials, but also the intangible story that magnifies their value.

Howard Marks warns of market froth

The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.

Learn from the last tech bubble and embrace GenAI mania

Using the internet bubble of the 1990s as a guide, we draw lessons for today’s investors in the Generative AI mania. Although bubbles eventually end in a bust, the mania generates capital investment that often yields long-term benefits.

Passive investors exposed to bubbliest market segment

Thanks to the 'Magnificent Seven' stocks, global passive investors thrashed most active peers in 2023. But there's a hitch: these investors' portfolios are now concentrated in the most overvalued segment of the market.

The seeds of a downturn, and opportunity

Current stock market enthusiasm calls for caution, with rates now in restrictive territory and several indicators portending trouble ahead. There are some opportunities in areas that haven't been caught up in the market hype.

Price is a liar: take three steps before you dive in

Price is a subjective measure with no mathematical definition, but valuation approximates the truth. With many stock prices down, investors looking to buy should consider three steps suited to current market conditions.

When I’m 64: the year traditional investing looked old

Long gone is the time when investing was only finding traditional value stocks making profits. Now there's Bitcoin, crypto, NFTs, memes, and finfluencers. Among a few winners, much of it will not end well.

Four bubbly market pockets show heightened risk for investors

At the top of every market, there are signs that investors look back on and say the excesses were obvious. While many parts of the market are fairly valued, here are four bubbles which show irrational exuberance.

The hazards of asset allocation in a late-stage major bubble

The Grantham article everyone is quoting, in full. "The long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble ... this could very well be the most important event of your investing lives."

Have stock markets become a giant Ponzi scheme?

A global financial casino has been created where investors ignore realistic valuations in the low growth, high-risk environment. At some point, analysis of fundamental value will be rewarded.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Simple maths says the AI investment boom ends badly

This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.

Why we should follow Canada and cut migration

An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.

Are LICs licked?

LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.

Australian house price speculators: What were you thinking?

Australian housing’s 50-year boom was driven by falling rates and rising borrowing power — not rent or yield. With those drivers exhausted, future returns must reconcile with economic fundamentals. Are we ready?

Retirement income expectations hit new highs

Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 627 with weekend update

This week, I got the news that my mother has dementia. It came shortly after my father received the same diagnosis. This is a meditation on getting old and my regrets in not getting my parents’ affairs in order sooner.

  • 4 September 2025

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