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8 October 2025
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With the focus on the cash rate of 0.85%, investors may overlook that fixed rate bonds are far ahead in the game. The question for high-quality bond investors is whether to go fixed or floating for the best returns.
Historically low bonds rates have boosted asset prices, but rates are likely to keep rising from this point. While this will cause pain over the next few years, it's a positive longer term as higher rates mean higher returns.
When bond rates are low, the search for yield by investors and lower discount rates inflates other asset prices. However, there are far more factors affecting share prices than just bond yields.
It is widely believed that rising bond yields should be bad for share prices. But is this true in real life? The relationship between government bond yields and the price of shares is more complex than it first seems.
* With our close focus on cash rates, it's easy to overlook longer term rates rising. Rates are up about 0.6% since June 2012, creating capital losses on long duration portfolios.
This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.
An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.
LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.
Australian housing’s 50-year boom was driven by falling rates and rising borrowing power — not rent or yield. With those drivers exhausted, future returns must reconcile with economic fundamentals. Are we ready?
Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?
This week, I got the news that my mother has dementia. It came shortly after my father received the same diagnosis. This is a meditation on getting old and my regrets in not getting my parents’ affairs in order sooner.