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Financial Forecasts

1-4 out of 4 results.

Why the Reserve Bank will cut the cash rate twice

A close inspection of Reserve Bank Board minutes, the implications of US Fed moves, the way unemployment is measured and how monetary policy is set add up to a picture of further rate cuts.

Profit downgrade? Blame it on the rain

Exogenous factors like macro changes and weather can affect a company’s short-term profits. Management often blames uncontrollable factors for earnings downgrades but rarely owns up to a fortuitous tailwind.

How good a guide is guidance?

The market's fixation with whether companies are meeting, exceeding, or falling short of quarterly financial targets is inhibiting market efficiency. Investors would do better focussing on long-term prospects.

That’s racing: financial markets and wagering parallels

There are insightful parallels between the bookmaking industry and the financial services sector, and it would help if market analysts and fund researchers assigned odds to their predictions.

Most viewed in recent weeks

How much bigger can the virus bubble get?

Stocks have rallied hard creating a virus bubble, but will this run for years or collapse in a matter of months? The market is giving a second chance to leave so head for the exit before there's a rush.

Share trading is the new addiction

The ability to buy and sell cheaply and quickly in small parcels is both the biggest drawback and benefit of shares. But it encourages people who should not go near the market to use it as a casino.

What is happening with SMSFs? Part 1

Taking a realistic view of the median ‘operating expense’ of an SMSF shows they cost less to run than previously claimed. Look at this granular breakdown and see how the costs of running your SMSF compare.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 362

The biggest policy issue facing the Government over the next few months is how to phase out JobKeeper and reduce JobSeeker. While stock markets continue to ride a mood of optimism, a September withdrawal of support would create a rapid rise in unemployment with consequences for business loans, mortgages and home prices. At the same time, payment deferrals will expire, and let's hope deferrals do not become impairments.

  • 18 June 2020

New ways for listed funds to fix their price discounts

Running a fund should not become a gravy train for boards and investment managers. It is time to address the persistent discounts to NTA on LICs, and there is one especially exciting new structure.

Howard Marks' anatomy of an unexpected rally

Markets can swing quickly from optimism to pessimism, and while there are more positives now than in the bleak early days in March, the market is ignoring many negatives. Risk is not rewarded at these levels.  

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